Thursday, October 12, 2006

Across Europe, Worries on Islam Spread to Center - New York Times

The article linked below is well worth reading. The Europeans have begun to realize, almost across the board, that it will soon be too late for their societies unless they can figure out a way to assimilate Muslim transplants into their culture, or otherwise deal with the often violent tendencies of Muslim culture when confronted with "sacreligious" criticism (basically, any criticism of their religion or its values). While some moderate Muslims have called for non-violent protest and social discourse (i.e., Western values) and a halt to Muslim violence that seems to come out of every Western cartoon or other negative pronouncement about Islam, it is clear that their is a strong tolerance of such violence in Muslim culture and leadership in the West that either has to change or be eradicated from our midst. Europe does not have the US "melting pot" experience of digesting immigrants into our general value system (though, to be fair, we may now be choking on too many immigrants from Latin American countries, and are not as successful into turning them into Americans who become part of our culture). In the US, the "American Dream" has allowed this country to digest "even" Muslims from Arab countries, though ethnic separatism, "tolerance", inferior "values" education and perhaps, a failing of our certainty in the superiority of our culture (at least within our own shores) have started to fray the threads of this integrating capability that has been successful for hundreds of years here.

When the Pope made his carefully calculated remarks "quoting" a medieval observation regarding the violence of Islam through the ages, he was kicking off his campaign to save European civilization from meekly melting away under the population wave and negative forces of the Islamic invasion of Europe. He is in the midst of urging Europe to turn away from secularization and moral relativism and to return to its Christian roots, and reasserting certainty and confidence in its values.

The handwringing Liberals of all stripes will be very concerned that this trend will just exascerbate the dangers of repression of other views in the US and Europe and the beginning of a great Crusade to force our views on other societies (as they whine today about the threat that the "Christian Right" poses to the American Way). However, isn't it enough to simply want to maintain the value systems that have made American and European culture generally successful and flourishing (subject to several horribly violent spasms) for the past 200 or so years? What is the alternative, head dresses for all our women?

Across Europe, Worries on Islam Spread to Center - New York Times

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Arab leaders sweat Iran | Chicago Tribune

Op-Ed Subtitle: "Sunnis start to see Shiite state as a bigger thret than Israel". As we have said here before, the opportunity to use wedge politics between the Sunnis and Shiites is there, and can be used to advance both American and Israeli interests, as well as provide progress on the Palestinian problem. But inspired leadership is required...

Arab leaders sweat Iran | Chicago Tribune

North Korea -- Mutually Assured Disruption - New York Times

The views of an early speechwriter for President Bush on what needs to be done now with regard to North Korea, both for its own actions as well as a deterrent to Iran.

To sum up Frum's message: "America has three key strategic goals in the wake of the North Korean nuclear test. The first is to enhance the security of those American allies most directly threatened by North Korean nuclear weapons: Japan and South Korea. The second is to exact a price from North Korea for its nuclear program severe enough to frighten Iran and any other rogue regimes considering following the North Korean path. The last is to punish China. North Korea could not have completed its bomb if China, which provides the country an immense amount of food and energy aid, had strongly opposed it. Apparently, Beijing sees some potential gain in the uncertainty that North Korea’s status brings. If China can engage in such conduct cost-free, what will deter Russia from aiding the Iranian nuclear program, or Pakistan someday aiding a Saudi or Egyptian one?"

Mutually Assured Disruption - New York Times

Monday, October 09, 2006

WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How would you grade the U.S.'s handling of the "axis of evil"?

Results so far (1900 voters):
A 4%
B 12%
C 13%
D 18%
F 53%

...and THIS is from a Wall Street Journal-reading crowd...
WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How would you grade the U.S.'s handling of the "axis of evil"?

Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war/Takeaways - Haaretz of Israel Quoting Jane's Intelligence Journal

Hopefully our President does not repeat his mistake from several years ago and believe that, when he sees into Mr. Putin's soul, he sees anything other than utter darkness.

It seems pretty clear from the articles below that Russia is back at it's old games again, trying to assert its power in the Middle East by standing in the way of each and every constructive, peace-seeking action attempted by the Western world (e.g., the UN's deployment in Lebanon). This makes it all the more clear that we should not expect Soviet -- whoops, I mean Russian -- assistance in dealing with Iran. Even more disturbing is that, whereas during the Cold War, Soviet actions were constrained by both a clear memory of the horrors of WW II and certain rules of the game (including a strong resistance to doing anything that would allow satellites or "non-aligned" states to take control of non-conventional weapons), today those rules do not seem to apply, which makes the world that much more dangerous...

Summary of Articles on Recent Russian Involvement in Lebanon and Syria: I'm too cheap to buy a subscription to the very informative Jane's intelligence and defense periodical, but Ze'ev Schiff of Israel's Haaretz published the article linked below highlighting Jane's reporting that during the Summer War in Lebanon, "Hezbollah received direct intelligence support from Syria, using data collected by listening posts jointly manned by Russian and Syrian crews. Hezbollah was also fed intelligence from new listening posts built on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, which are operated jointly with Iran. "

Debka separately reports today ("Debka Russian Lebanon Intel Buildup") that
two Russian Chechen GRU platoons, Vostok and Zapad, are setting up their headquarters and surveillance posts in the Lebanese port of Sidon and giving Syrian intelligence a window on their input. According to Debka, "the carve-up of South Lebanon since Israeli troops pulled out is unfolding as follows: The UN force mandated by UN Security Council resolution 1701 is centered in the Tyre region, whereas Hizballah, Syria’s supporters and the Russian intelligence platoons have taken control of Sidon further up the Mediterranean coast. The three elements are ideally positioned for Hizballah to control the south Lebanese coastal region and for the Russians and Syrians to keep track of the military movements of the Israeli army, UNIFIL and the European naval units off the Lebanese shore."

Bottom Line Observations and Significance of these Developments: The Russian intelligence presence in Lebanon and close cooperation with the Syrians and Hezbullah:

--Puts UN troops at greater risk from terrorists;

--Further undermines Israel's deterrent capability, in that another dangerous hurdle was just placed in the path of Israel's ability to strike back at Syrian resupply of Hezbollah (of which the Israelis have nothing so far) -- possible casualties to Russian interests in Lebanon, as well as early warning of any Israeli attempt at such actions;

--Israel's military capability to do anything to Iran is also undermined, based on the logical assumption that if Israel commenced military activities targetting Iran -- or its interests in Syria -- the Russians could possibly see it sooner from their intelligence posts in Lebaonon and Syria and relay the information to the Iranians. Similarly, any use of the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, against Iran or elsewhere, also just took an intelligence hit.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. It feels like the 70's again, triangulating between the Chinese and Russians, though this time there is a third and more dangerous enemy, Islamic extremism...


Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war - Haaretz - Israel News