JINSA Report #745
"We'll break their legs"
Israel's crisis? He's kidding, right? Egypt made this mess and the crisis threatens Cairo much more than Jerusalem. Israel, unfortunately, knows how to deal with terrorism. Egypt will have to deal with a threat to the regime.
Egypt occupied Gaza from 1949-67, using it as a duty free port for the military. Palestinians couldn't exit without Egyptian permission, and the Egyptians didn't give permission. UNRWA warehoused the refugees under the watchful eyes of the Egyptian army, creating today's multi-generational - and anti-Egyptian - humanitarian disaster. When Israel acquired Gaza in the Six Day War, it found poor, miserable Palestinians living in hovels next to warehouses of smuggled cars, furs, cigarettes and liquor belonging to the Egyptian army.
Israel's contribution to the problem was the Oslo process that set the Palestinians on a path toward self-government that has devolved into anarchy. The United States joined Israel in the fantasy that the Palestinians could "make peace" without a general Arab agreement on the permanence and legitimacy of Israel in the region. Both pretended the Palestinians could exercise judgment independent of their financial and ideological sponsors - and that their judgment would be moderate.
Hamas is an ideological offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood - the Islamist organization that threatens Mubarak's secular, nationalist and repressive rule in Egypt. Because Mubarak has been ruthless in suppressing the moderate opposition over time, real political parties and divergent political thinking have been outlawed. Only the Brotherhood has retained organizational capabilities in Egyptian society. Egyptians face the specter of Mubarak, Mubarak fils or the Revolution. The Revolution is looking more likely.
The ability of Hamas, now funded by Egypt's adversary Iran, to enter Egypt and coordinate/cooperate with the Brotherhood and its ability to conduct terrorist operations in the Sinai against the all-important Egyptian tourism industry, is Mubarak's nightmare. But shoving Gazans back into their prison, or breaking their legs, would make ugly images on al Jazeera, further eroding Mubarak's in Egyptian and pan-Arab eyes.
Egypt and Israel, like Jordan and Israel, share security concerns about the Palestinians and radical revolution. Jordan has made the decision to work with Israel; Egypt isn't there yet.
We repeat our view that the solution to Gaza will not emerge as long as Hamas or Fatah is permitted to pretend that it governs. When the UN saw anarchy in the dissolution of Yugoslavia, it was prompted to act. The United States and the UN should look at the breeching of the Egyptian border and the declared and active war against Israel - two members of the UN - and call a halt to the experiment in Palestinian self-rule. It will be messy, but not as messy as the undermining of Cairo.
