Things You Can Do to Defeat Islamo-Fascism, Terrorism and Global Warming -- Simple Tips to Conserve Energy

Oil is the Enabler of Much Evil: As I have mentioned before, it is abundantly clear that the more dollars we spend on oil and gasoline, the more money we put into the hands of Iranians, Saudis and others in the Arab and Muslim worlds who directly (in the case of Iran), and indirectly (in the case of the Saudi government) use these dollars to further the causes of Islamo -Fascism and terrorism, and the teaching of extremist Islamist ideology and anti-Americanism. Beyond those characters, our oil dollars subsidize other authoritarian, anti-humanitarian, corrupt and/or anti-American regimes of various stripes in Russia, Sudan, Venezuela and a host of other bad places. To my righteously indignant liberal friends and self-hating Americans of all stripes, say what you will about the U.S., but I'm sorry, these other peoples are a lot less responsible world citizens and defenders of liberty and human rights than we are.

If the geo-political implications of oil usage isn't enough, the use of oil, gas and coal is the core controllable cause of global warming which is quickly wrecking this planet and appears to be going on unabated, treaties or not. (See "U.K. Government Report Warns Of Unchecked Global Warming" in today's Wall Street Journal). Our government seems to do very little on either the research front or any other front (see my blog the other day, "Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming - New York Times").

Other than bringing in a responsible, common sense third party candidate not beholden to anyone (Mr. Bloomberg is out there teasing us), what can we do in our everyday lives to reduce our energy usage, and fight our enemies and global warming at the same time?

Some Personal Energy Facts: Did you know that, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the "average American consumer" (whoever that is):

-- expends 75-80% of his or her energy budget (usage, not dollars) on transportation, and 20-25% on his or her home;
--of the home energy budget, Mr. Average American expends his energy approximately as follows:
-Appliances and electronics -- 20%
-Space heating and cooling -- 56%
-Water heating -- 14-25%
-Artificial lighting -- 15% (why do these categories of usage add up to 105-116%? Don't ask me, ask the braniacs in the Department of Energy. From examining their website, it looks like they might overlapping the water heating and the space heating/cooling categories).

Anyway, here are some simple (and not so simple) things you can do to reduce energy usage. Pass these around to your friends if you care about our childrens' futures. If you do anything, it will help. In most cases the payback for your effort is close to immediate or at worst, within 1-2 years. Much of this is painfully obvious, but bears repeating:

Transportation: Use mass transit as much as possible, get the most fuel efficient car for your needs (i.e., typically, hybrid or diesel over gas engine, minivan or station wagon over a truck-based SUV, the "base engine" model of a car over the model with the V-8 engine). Combine yor trips to cover as many errands in one shot as possible. Carpool. In terms of driving habits, when you accelerate, try to avoid "jack rabbit" starts, and try to play a game when you know there is a stop sign or other reason to stop ahead -- coast (without your foot on the gas) for as far of the distance into the stop as possible.

Home -- Water Heating: Lower the temperature on your hot water heater to 120 degrees or a bit less -- if you are currently up at around 130-140, this can save 10-20% of your ho water energy budget. Insulate every hot pwater pipe possible, as well as the hot water heater. reduce hot waater use wherever possible, such as with laundry and the dishwasher. take showers instead of baths. Install flow control faucet nozzles, if you don't already have them. If your water heater is 15 years old or more, the lining of the tank is approaching its useful life anyway -- take this opportunity to seriously consider installing a high efficiency hot water heater, a tankless hot water heater and/or a solar assisted hot water heater (like I have -- it saves very significant carbon emissions (tons of greenhouse gases) and energy per year and, with tax credits, should pay back within 4-6 years of installation (after tax credits, my system cost approximately $4,700).

--Artificial Lighting: The easiest to improve -- make it a habit to turn off light when you leave the room, and train your kids ot do so as well, if you are handy, install timer or motion sensitive switches in the basement, garage and bathrooms -- places people (especially children) can leave a switch on by mistake and it will stay on for days without being turned off.

Use of new lighting technology can reduce electrical usage for lighting by 50-75%. The most valuable thing to do: install compact flourescent light bulbs (those spiral bulbs that you see more and more at Costco). They cost more than regular incandescent bulbs, but last 10-15 times longer and consume less than 25% of the energy as a regular bulb for the same light output. A 23 Watt compact flourescent puts out the same light as a 100 Watt regular bulb, and produces a lot less heat (requiring less air conditioning)! It is best to start replacing regular bulbs with compact flourescents in the highest traffic locations, where the lights are on the most -- kitchens, family rooms, bedrooms. They throw off a bit yellower light than regualr bulbs, but if that really botehrs you, mix them half and half in a room with regular bulbs (e.g., in high hat light fixtures) and you will not realize the difference. Note, these bulbs do not work with dimmer switches.

--Appliances and Electronics: If your refrigerator is 15 years old, throw it out and reduce energy usage on it by one to two-thirds. Vacuum its condenser coils every six months to reduce energy usage. Ditto on replacing old washers, dryers and dishwashers. Clean the dryer exhaust vent -- a clogged vent uses up a ton more energy, dries slower and can cause a fire. Turn off that computer if you are goign to leave it on unused fr several hours (especially overnight). If you have an old fashioned heavy CRT tube monitor for your computer, get rid of it NOW (environmentlally safely) and replace it with a light LCD screen (they are now dirt cheap) which uses a fraction of the energy and produces a fraction of the heat. Consider doing the same if you have a big CRT television -- good Americans watch TV on energy efficient plasma or LCD screens!

-- Space Heating and Cooling: This is where it counts the most, energy-wise. First, insulate, insulate, insulate. Everyone focuses on the attic (for good reason), but one of the least insulated places in the house, and a major source of heat loss, is the basement. Did you know that an uninsulated cinder block wall insulates almost as poorly as a sheet of glass? Whether your basement is unfinished or finished, insulate (if it is unfinished, you can easily get hard foamboard insulation and just glue it to the walls). Look for holes were air can escape to the outside and caulk them (e.g., holes in walls for pipes or vents -- also a great pace to stop rodent penetration). Replace old windows or repair them and use storm windows during the winter. If you have old steam radiators, put foamboard wrapped with tin foil behind the radiator (foil facing towards the room) to radiate heat in towards the room. Have boiler cleaned and boiler and air conditioning regularly serviced, and ducts cleaned. If you have hot water or steam heat, insulate as much of those pipes as possible. Don't block radiators or heat supplies with any insulating materials (like piles of clothes, books, etc..). Use programmable thermostats, try to keep it a couple of degrees colder in the winter and warmer in the summer. During the Summer, if you use an attic ventilator fan attached to a themostat to keep your attic below 95 degrees, you can save substantially on air conditioning usage for the rest of the house (a good roofer can install this fan if you don't have one).

Again, if your boiler or air conditioner is 15 years old, consider upgrading to a new high efficiency heating system, whcih can cut your fuel bills and furnace pollution by half or more! A new furnace can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.5-2.0 tons for a gas system or 2.5-3 tons for an oil system per year.

We can talk about other, more radical solutions, like solar voltaic cell electricity generation (not such a great thing at current solar cell prices and sun availability in the Northeast, roughly 14-16 year payback -- focus on solar hot water heating instead), or geothermal heating and cooling (a big winner), but these are more expensive and complex solutions that can be discussed some other time.

To sum up, you can make a difference to our national security and health of our planet, and save money at the same time. Start today.

US Gov't Arabic Language Station

See the attached article, by a brilliant and really good guy, Rob Satloff, head of the Washington Institute. Rob hosts an Arabic language talk show broadcast to the Arab World called, "Inside Washington", and in this article he discusses the value that such a station can bring to our message to the Arab world.
Article or Op-Ed

Anti-Israel Media Bias: Indie's Uranium Charges

See attached link.
Indie's Uranium Charges

Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming - New York Times

As I have said before, for both national security reasons and the preservation of our planet for future generations, we must focus on carbon emissions and its effect on global warming NOW. Current Federal spending for ALL energy-related research and development is only approximately $3 Billion a year (the Bush Administration wants to raise this to $4.2 Billion).To illustrate the point of how the Federal energy research effort today compares to past Federal research efforts, attached is a chart I pulled from another article on relative government research effort sizes. Federally-funded research is important to scientific development becuase it typically most assists the long range basic research that privately-funded corporate research avoids (commerical research is typically more focussed on developing shorter term "end use" technology).

Basically, the attached article from the Times is not a good story, and it points out how critical it is to put in place, right after the elections, vigorous tax incentives and increases in government aid for basic research -- paid for through increased gasoline taxes that offer the by-product of encouraging more responsible behavior. Alternative energy research and conservation cannot simply be driven by the invisible hand of market prices in oil -- the environment cannot wait for several years of $100+ a barrel oil (it is now back below $60 a barrel, and moving south), because we must reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into our environment sooner rather than later. Think of it as a current investment in reducing future environmental catastrophe mitigation costs (think about the costs associated with lots of future Hurricane Katrinas). It is amazing that neither political party has the guts or forsight for our kids to take this issue to the American people and drive this agenda through legislative action.

To sum up this NY Times article, linked below:

"In the United States, annual federal spending for all energy research and development — not just the research aimed at climate-friendly technologies — is less than half what it was a quarter-century ago. It has sunk to $3 billion a year in the current budget from an inflation-adjusted peak of $7.7 billion in 1979, according to several different studies."

“We cannot come close to stabilizing temperatures” unless humans, by the end of the century, stop adding more CO2 to the atmosphere than it can absorb, said W. David Montgomery of Charles River Associates, a consulting group, “and that will be an economic impossibility without a major R.& D. investment.”

A sustained push is needed not just to refine, test and deploy known low-carbon technologies, but also to find “energy technologies that don’t have a name yet,” said James A. Edmonds, a chief scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute of the University of Maryland and the Energy Department.

At the same time, many energy experts and economists agree on another daunting point: To make any resulting “alternative” energy options the new norm will require attaching a significant cost to the carbon emissions from coal, oil and gas.

“A price incentive stirs people to look at a thousand different things,’ ” said Henry D. Jacoby, a climate and energy expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

For now, a carbon cap or tax is opposed by President Bush, most American lawmakers and many industries. And there are scant signs of consensus on a long-term successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the first treaty obligating participating industrial countries to cut warming emissions. (The United States has not ratified the pact.)

The next round of talks on Kyoto and an underlying voluntary treaty will take place next month in Nairobi, Kenya.

Environmental campaigners, focused on promptly establishing binding limits on emissions of heat-trapping gases, have tended to play down the need for big investments seeking energy breakthroughs. At the end of “An Inconvenient Truth,” former Vice President Al Gore’s documentary film on climate change, he concluded: “We already know everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.”

While applauding Mr. Gore’s enthusiasm, many energy experts said this stance was counterproductive because there was no way, given global growth in energy demand, that existing technology could avert a doubling or more of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide in this century."

Write your Congressmen!!! Focus on improving the efficiency of your energy usage!!! With regard to the latter, I will post an article inthe next day or two giving common sense solutions that each of us can use to reduce energy usage in our homes.

Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming - New York Times

Before you Vote: The Democratic Party's Non-Contract With America - WSJ.com

The Democratic Party's agenda revealed, as explained in a WSJ editorial. Some of it is logical onthe surface, but for the most part reflects a pupulist animus that is dangerous to our unity as a nation, our security and our economic development. If only the religious right would loosen up its clutches on the Republican Party, and allow moderates to live in peace under its tent...

I await a third party representing the vast, unrepresented center. Mike Bloomberg, where are you?

The Non-Contract With America - WSJ.com

Column One: Postcards from Saigon

Caroline Glick, who writes this column for the Jerusalem Post, continues to be one of my favorite writers, and may be Israel's answer to Bill Safire (I miss his column). In the column linked below, she does a lot better job of explaining why Iraq is importnat today than the Fox crowd will ever do (forget about the NY Times and other liberal or leftist tomes), albeit tying it all back to an Israeli's point of view (it is the Jerusalem Post, after all). You can agree or disagree as to the how we got there, but Iraq today is important, very important, to the future of the civilized world, and pithy slogans and defeatist cries without any evaluation of the consequences and manner of our phasedown and withdrawal will do nobody any good except our enemies.

And besides, Ms. Glick doesn't like Condi Rice and the State Department, and for that itself she gets a gold star. In Ms. Glick's words, we need more diplomats who pursue diplomacy to advance American interests, and fewer who believe diplomacy is just about making meaningless declarations and entering into empty agreements that are ignored by all.

Column One: Postcards from Saigon | Jerusalem Post

Naval Exercises off Bahrain: Preventing Proliferation between North Korea and Iran

This article is from the Washington Institute, and provides a hint at the legal framework that might be used to intercept ships bound for Iran, as well as North Korea. Mr. Henderson's description of the reaction of the Persian Gulf countries to this mission is particularly interesting (at least to me).

Naval Exercises off Bahrain: Preventing Proliferation between North Korea and Iran

Friedman on Finding the Basis for a New Post-Cold War Western Alliance

Friedman makes the argument in the article linked below that we need to find the right basis for a post-Cold War western alliance, and that terrorism isn't the glue -- environmentalism is. While I don't totally agree with him that the clash of Islamist and Western cultures can't be a glue that binds us (ask the French in another several years), at least with the right person in the White House, I agree that environmentalist leadership can be a very important tool for American leadership of the West to get a "new start" in 2009, or earlier if we can start doing so by creating a groundswell of environmental initiatives and leadership away from our hopeless Executive Branch. As I have said before in this blog (e.g., see "Our National Security Requires a Solution to Our Total Energy Dependence Upon Hydrocarbons") , there is no doubt that environmentalism (particularly as it relates to hydrocarbon usage and global warming) and energy/national security go hand in hand. Quick, name a responsible and trustworthy country other than the US and Canada, with any semblance of Western democratic values, that controls any significant energy resources? Real progress on both the fronts of environmentalism and energy security is too important to the future of this planet.

In this regard, Perhaps President Bush's biggest mistake, fresh in office, was his loud, politically-inspired opposition to the Kyoto Protocols and the idea of multilateral action on the global warming front. He came across as a US oil-country, SUV-driving, gluttonous, insensitive Texas cowboy (and hence reinforcing a stereotype ofthe US in general), and it pretty much set the stage for all impresssions afterwards of him in Europe, where Kyoto was a very important litmus test of who the US is. Kyoto was certainly flawed in certain significant ways, most importantly to the degree that it let the developing countries (particularly China) TOTALLY off the hook with regard to future energy responsibility at the expense of the West, particularly the US (which is an energy glutton after all). To some extent, the reality has to be faced by Americans that a treaty that forces developing countries to turn back the energy clock while they are in the midst of explosive growth will never work, and therefore we in the US should bear a disproportionate amount of the cost of turning back the hydrocarbon clock (especially since we are by far the greatest disproportionate users of energy). The bright lining of this is the amount of capital investment and economic activity that would be developed in the US by becoming crusaders and retooling our economy for a more energy efficient future (which we can then export through globalization), the same way our technology revolution of the 90's improved corporate productivity and US living standards across the board, and fueled the success of not only the US but the global economy. This is not a Democrat-Republican issue but an American economic and global environmental issue (e.g., Arnold in California and, a bit less voraciously Pataki in NY, both Republicans, have grasped on this issue big-time).

While disproportionate leadership and sacrifice by the US on environmentalism is therefore not only morally correct but also potentially economically advantageous, on the other hand many reasonable people on both sides of the aisle feel that Kyoto went too far in the other direction of putting too much onus on us, and giving the developing world (read, most importantly, China) a total free pass. So President Bush basically walked away from the whole thing in what was portrayed as a unilateralist's huff, rather than showing clear support and leadership of it and perhaps trying to shape the treaty in a way that would be a bit more friendly and evenhanded to US interests (though still weighed to permit emerging country growth rates which are significantly higher than our own). This happy result would have reinforced our place as a non-coercive Western leader while also both setting a process for improving our energy security and depriving our Islamist enemies of petrodollars in the long term (where are we 6 years later in this latter regard?). Nothing drives our Western allies crazier than what appears to be US unilateralist behavior (particularly of the "go-it-alone, give the finger to the world" variety), and I believe that Bush's approach to Kyoto informed our relationship with them going forward.

I am not arguing for submitting to the whims of multilateralists in Brussels or at the NY Times -- but as the biggest part of the energy problem in the world by any measure, we have a unique responsibility -- and the inside track -- to responsibly lead a multilateral alliance of Western countries at attacking these issues, thereby burnishing our political goodwill and capital with these allies for use with respect to our other core interests of ours. Didn't we use the threat of the Soviets and our role as a bulwark against them, through our leadership of NATO, as a basis for leading such a multilateral alliance on other issues during the Cold War? Has our "end of history" post-Cold War triumphalism helped us forget history?

Allies Dressed in Green - New York Times

Paris Intifada: Youths Torch 3 Buses in Suburban Paris

With all the oil money that the Islamic world possesses, they can't take care of their own? See link below on latest Parisian violence.

Hickory Daily Record | AP News

French Police Face 'Permanent Intifada' - washingtonpost.com

Unfortunately, the French don't know what to do about this increasing challenge to their society. They face it with a combination of dispair and self-delusion, and the real danger exists that a far right ascendency (or at least, serious challenge) to power could be triggered in the elections. In additon, these problems, as well as te well publicized issues in Britain lately over face covering Muslim women, points to the problems we face at sharing the world with an increasingly militant Muslim population.

We might complain about the cultural and social indigestion that the unprecedented wave of Hispanic and other immigration has created during the last decade in the US, accentuated by multiculturalist policies (like overly-forgiving bilingual eduation programs), that ignored centuries old lessons in the integration of new Americans into our social and economic fiber. However, by any measure, we are apparently one hell of a lot more successful at making new Americans than the French are at making new Frenchmen (or anyone else at making new countrymen, for that matter) . At a time when we have a lot to be concerned about with our nation, our standing in the world, our culture and the variety of security and economic threats to our way of life, this French social problem is a nice reminder of the uniqueness and greatness of our nation and our way of life. We are all blessed.

French Police Face 'Permanent Intifada' - washingtonpost.com

Redeploy US troops to Iraq's desert | Jerusalem Post

Here's an interesting idea from Daniel Pipes. Of course, when things REALLY got bad after our redeploying to the desert, would our troops be able to just stand still and not do anything while a Dharfur was occurring all around us? I'm not saying that some eleements of this plan could be appealig on an interim basis, but my preferred view is still to get the Sunni-led Arab League together and force them to be part of the solution while also enhancing Suni prestige in the Arab world (at the expense of Iran) and putting some Egyptian troops on Iran's border (we should get something for our $2+Billion a year to them, after all, and they are cetrtainly not doing muuch good keeping Al Qaeda under control in the Sinai). See my other writings on this topic for more detail, if you wish (most specifically, "Global Predictions, Part 2", September 3rd).

Redeploy US troops to Iraq's desert | Jerusalem Post

Reuters on Jewish Refugees -- For Israeli-Palestinian Peace, Palestinians Must Get Realistic About their Demand For "Right of Return" To Israel

The bottom line, as featured in the Reuters article below: By the UN's own count, more Jews were evicted or coerced into leaving Arab countries than Palestinians left Israel in connection with Israel's independence (and if you believe the figures given by many others and in the article below, over 50% more Jews left Arab countries than Palestinians left Israel). In addition, there is no doubt, based upon the relative wealth of the two communities, that the Jewish community lost much, much more materially than did the Palestinians.

The Palestinian demand for the "right of return" to their alleged homes in Israel may be the greatest sticking point in any negotiated settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, so it is important to view this argument alongside the destruction of the massive Jewish communities that had lived Arab lands, in some cases for over 2500 years, and could trace their communities back that far through communal records, unlike the Palestinians, who have shown little ability to demonstrate any long term connection to "Palestine" (read "From Time Immemorial", by Joan Peters, among other documentations of this).

During the 20th century there were inumerable population transfers and exchanges effected among warring peoples that have been accepted by the international community, as varied as the Greek-Turkish population swap following WWI, mass expulsion of Germans from Poland and Czechoslovakia following WWII (to the victor go the spoils?), to the rationalization of the states that used to comprise the former Yugoslavia. It isn't pretty, some may call it "ethnic cleansing", but it works at reducing violence and civil war, allowing people to get beyond the preoccupations of the past, and to move on to the future in a relatively peaceful manner. One can easily envision the positive aspect of a massive population exchange in Iraq, if we could figure out how to equitably treat the distribution of oil revenues among the three peoples who control that embattled land.

Since WWII the international community, while accepting the result of population transfers for practicality's sake, has become unsettled with such actions if performed without the consent of the parties involved, which may be deemed a violation of international law. See Population Transfers Article in Wikedia. While one may expect a population exchange (which is reciprocal, after all) to be treated more favorably by international jurists than a population transfer (which involves a one-sided exile), in fact the most relevant article that I could find on the issue on short notice ("Population Exchanges: International Law and State Practice—Part 2" by Christa Meindersma of the UN, in The International Journal of Refugee Law)
states that,

"Population exchanges cannot be considered separately from population transfers, for such policies and practices, even more than spontaneous flight and relocation, contribute to solidifying permanent alterations in the demographic map. The compatibility of population transfers with humanitarian and human rights law in a given situation is thus relevant in determining whether a consolidation of the demographic fait accompli could serve as a basis for a lasting solution to conflict."

I couldn't figure out how to pay the $23 to Oxford Press to read this article beyond the abstract and see the legal and, presumably moral justification for this approach, but anyone in his right mind would see that if the choice is continued conflict and death and global disorder, or a population exchange, most people would opt for the population exchange (as the British Labor Party did for the transfer of Arabs from Israel, soon after Israel's independence). Indeed, to use the author of that article's words, a population exchange between Jews nad Palestinians could be expected to "serve as a lasting solution to conflict" -- and therefore perhaps be legal -- but only if the Palestinians act as if they want peace and half a loaf is better (and fairer) than none (in other words, the legal argument may be circular, and hostage to unreasonableness of the parties... but then again I may be taking these words out of context over twenty three bucks..)

If one accepts an Arab-Jewish population exchange as a worthy way to help end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of course, then there are a number of Arab countries, from which Jewish populations departed during the past sixty years, who now must absorb these Palestinian refugees, instead of housing them in rancid refugee camps to perpetuate their victimhood and political utility. In addition, to further increase the chances of resolving this conflict (as long as I am thinking Utopian, I might as well go all the way), one may also wish to consider the party platform of Israel's soon-to-be (maybe) vice premier, Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, a Soviet refugee (and hence one not to think in terms of theortical legal niceties). Mr. Lieberman common sensably (in my opinion) advocates, as part of an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, a swap of both Jewish residents and their territory on the West Bank to Israel, in exchange for "giving the Palestinians the Israeli Arabs and their Israeli territory that is contiguous to the West Bank. In other words, swap the land that the people are attached to, don't just swap the people.

This is all more food for thought, if one has a partner on the other side who is willing to really sacrifice for peace in a spirit of fair exchange, rather than maximalist demands...

Reuters AlertNet - FEATURE-Mideast Jewish refugees campaign for recognition

We are biased, admit the stars of BBC News | the Daily Mail

"It was the day that a host of BBC executives and star presenters admitted what critics have been telling them for years: the BBC is dominated by trendy, Left-leaning liberals who are biased against Christianity and in favour of multiculturalism... BBC executives admitted the corporation is dominated by homosexuals and people from ethnic minorities, deliberately promotes multiculturalism, is anti-American, anti-countryside and more sensitive to the feelings of Muslims than Christians."

Most cultures teach that self-criticism is the first step towards repentance and self improvement...

We are biased, admit the stars of BBC News | the Daily Mail

Watch Out for Palestinian Civil War

During the past two weeks there have been a number of developments that portend poorly for the future of stability in the Palestinian territories:

--The breakdown of unity government talks between Abbas and Hamas;

--Fighting between Hamas and Fatah loyalists in the streets of Gaza, leaving tens killed and scores injured;

-- the Fatah attack several days ago on the motorcade of the Hamas foreign minister;

--The failure of Egyptian-led mediation talks between the sides;

--Revelations of the massive inflow into Gaza from Egypt, through a leaky border and scores of tunnels (some of which have been recently discovered by Israelis re-occupying the Philadelphi Strip) of not only weapons for use against Israel, like Katyushas, anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets, but also of Hizbullah, Al-Qaeda and other foreign combatants and "experts", along with personal weaponry and bombmaking equipment. (By the way, the Egyptians have either been criminally negligent or worse in permitting the re-militarization of Gaza, and I'd like to know why this has happened, purposefully or through a loss of control by the Egyptian regime -- we give them over $2 Billion a year to be a loyal ally, what gives?).

--The quiet dispatch by the US and Jordan of money and arms to Abbas and his Fatah arm.

--Debka reports today that the Palestinian parties ave been summoned to Saudi Arabia for a last ditch attempt at mediation.

The approaches of the two sides are irreconcileable, as long as the Western boycott of Palestinian aid continues and the noose is drawn tighter around the necks of Hamas, which is increasingly being blamed for the privations of a citizenry long accustomed and expectant of living off of welfare payments paid by others. Something has to give for Hamas to retain power, especially as there continue to be veiled threats of Abbas calling for new elections or suspending Parliament.

What to expect?

If Saudi Arabia cannot or will not revert to form and try to bribe the parties to a truce, expect Hamas and its allies in Gaza, where it is much stronger militarily and on a relative basis to Fatah than on the West Bank, to accelerate armed conflict with Fatah, which could well result in a full civil war in Gaza, which Fatah is positioned to lose. If this conflict in Gaza goes terminal and badly for Fatah (which it would), expect Fatah, to save face, to bring this civil war to the West Bank, cleansing it of Hamas power structures, where Fatah is stronger and Israeli complicity of one sort or another can be expected. Also expect Hamas to accelerate its efforts to kidnap more soldiers from Israel and attack Israel with more rockets than the several-a-day it now endures (and no one talks about). Just as the Hizbullah attack of Israel was to a great extent meant to buttress its internal political position in Lebanon, expect Hamas to try to do the same in a growing Palestinian civil war. Israel, this time, will be expected to show more restraint in order to help Fatah and not seem like too much of a Fatah ally against Hamas.

The end game? Either this growing civl war is stopped in time, or we end up with Gaza smoldering, and a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Fatah-controlled West Bank. Israel will have the dagger of a Hamasastan pointed to its south, and its hand may become eventally freer to deal with this threat, and perhaps Jordanian involvement in "stabilizing" the West Bank could help in long term co-existence efforts between the Palestinians and Israel. I may even see my desire of Jordan's assumption of West Bank security control through the importation of Jordanian police trainers and advisers, in consultation with Israel, leading to Palestinian confederation with Jordan. Of course, anyting that helps with "solving" the Palestinian issue for world and Arab consumption will help our foreign policy in the Mideast, especially as Gaza and its people are increasingly seen as the bad brothers of West Bank Palestinians. Wishful thinking perhaps, but it could happen....

Out of risk comes opportunity --lets keep our fingers crossed.

The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.

There has definitely been an increase in background noise and military activity in the Persian Gulf during the past month, either preceding preparation for military action against Iran, or alternatively as an attempt to bluff the Iranians over their nuclear program (if the latter, it doesn't seem to be having much of an effect, given the latest pronouncements by Iran's president, who is the living answer to the lecturn-pounding populism of Huey Long). It is a bit bizarre that we don't read about these military preparations in the mainstream western press, but below are two links regarding the military buildup, the second of which contains extensive military analysis (this guy is a hell of a lot more verbose than I am, by the way). Yes, I know these are both Left Wing mouthpieces, but that doesn't mean one shouldn't read them -- just do so with some caution (as one should read stuff from the other side of the aisle, as well). For those who like to read from Right to Left, also see today's Debka report regarding the deployment of the Iwo Jima expeditionary force to the Persian Gulf.

The Nation: War Signals?

The March to War: Naval build-up in the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Watch the Russians: Kremlin Puts Foreign NGO’s on Notice - New York Times

As the article below further documents, Russia continues to march deeper into the darkness of authoritarianism. While our #1 problem in the world today is still clearly the rise of Islamic extremism, Russia bears close watching by those in power. So far Russia as played the role of spoiler, akin to a somewhat more intractable France, but that might be only the beginning, as I believe we may be just a step or two away from the Russian return to the Cold War days of fighting proxy wars for global power and influence.

More reason why we have to find ways to make common cause with China. Call out to Kissinger...

Kremlin Puts Foreign NGO’s on Notice - New York Times

Human Rights Watch: Hizbullah used cluster bombs

Hizbullah used cluster bombs against Israeli civilians -- its "better late than never" that the Human Rights Watch organization reported on this, though that isn't a sufficient explanation for their one-sided coverage of the issues of human rights violations in the Lebanon Summer war. It bears repeating that, taking the combatants at their own words, Hizbullah specifically targetted civilians with cluster bombs, with the intent of killing and maiming civilians (including Muslim Israelis). On the other hand, any civilian casualties caused by Israel's bombing of Lebanon was in pursuit of Hizbulla military targets that used civilians as human shields (a war crime on Hizbullah's part). It is important to understand this difference -- THERE IS NO MORAL EQUIVALENCE BETWEEN THE POSITIONS.

Report: Hizbullah used cluster bombs | Jerusalem Post

The Democratic Party, Jimmy Carter, and Why Friends of Israel Should Think Twice Before Supporting the Democratic Party

We hear alot about how "right wing reactionaries" (I think those were Mr. Clinton's words recently) have taken over the Republican Party, while hearing very little about what has happpened to the Democratic Party. In short, it is unfortunately dominated at the top by leftists who possess too much hatred of American ideals. Democratic Party views towards the State of Israel are particularly disturbing, with only 43% of Democrats supporting Israel vs 84% of Republicans (see the great set of ads at The Republican Jewish Coalition website). That statistic is not a misprint -- it merely reflects a set of values that seeks to "understand the legitimate grievances" of our enemies, rather than to accept the regrettable fact that our enemies can hate us simply because theirs is a culture of empire and violence, and they feel religiously compelled to subjugate Judeo-Christian culture.

Anyway, back to Jimmy Carter, who has demonstrated in the past that he is genuinely a Southern anti-Semite of the old school (and I am not confusing anti-Semite with Anti-Zionist -- at several points in the past 30 years his anti-Zionism has veered into the irrational, leading to only one logical conclusion). From our friends at Gardner Carton and Mesirow Capital:

Mid-November Surprise
Jimmy Carter has a new book coming out next month, an anti-Israel polemic titled "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," reports the Forward:

Judging from an advance review manuscript of the new work, published by Simon & Schuster and set for release November 14, Carter appears to place the bulk of the blame on Israel for its continuing conflict with the Palestinians. But his critics will probably be most offended by the use of the word "apartheid" in the title.
The book comes as the Republican Jewish Coalition is already waging a nationwide media campaign to convince Jewish voters that the Democratic Party can no longer be counted on to provide unflinching support for Israel. . . .
The book was originally slated to be released November 1--six days prior to this year's congressional elections--but will now be available in stores November 14, according to Simon & Schuster spokeswoman Elizabeth Hayes.
Jewish Democrats say that they were pushing for a later release date.
Hayes says the delay was to allow Carter time to add material on the summer's war with Hezbollah. In any case, it's an interesting contrast with the spate of anti-Bush books that have come out just in time for the election.

Italy to Supply Anti-Aircraft Missiles to Lebanon while UNIFIL Ignores Hezbollah Arms Smuggling?

If true, this story would further point to European duplicity towards Israel and reinforce the point that this Israeli government is in over its head.

Why is it that when we look around the world today for a government that is competently pushing forward its policies successfully, I only see Russia, China and Iran?

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Italy to sell Lebanon sophisticated ground-to-air Aster 15 missiles to stop Israel’s aerial surveillance of hostile movements

October 17, 2006, 12:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli aircraft monitor illegal Hizballah movements and arms smuggling - in the absence of any Lebanese army and UNIFIL preventive action to implement UN Resolution 1701.

According to DEBKAfile’s Rome sources, prime minister Romano Prodi has instructed his defense ministry to negotiate with the Fouad Siniora government the quick sale of an Aster 15 battery, the only Western surface-to-air missile with an active guidance system capable of last-minute corrections of targeting at the moment of interception.

As a joint Franco-Italian product, the sale also needed - and obtained - approval from French president Jacques Chirac.

Our sources report the Aster 15 will be accompanied by Italian instructors to guide Lebanese troops in their use. Since 50% of those officers are Shiites loyal to Hizballah or Amal, the Shiite terrorists are looking forward to gaining access for the first time to top-of-the-line Western anti-air missile technology.

On Oct. 13, Lebanese chief of staff General Michel Suleiman informed his officers posted on the Lebanese-Israeli border of the Beirut government’s “indefatigable efforts” to obtain anti-air missiles to hit patrolling Israeli aircraft. He added that very soon, Lebanon would also acquire long-range anti-tank rockets to prevent Israeli tanks again crossing the border.

Commanders of the French UNIFIL contingent have threatened to fire on Israeli warplanes in Lebanese skies, according to Israel defense minister Amir Peretz in a briefing to a Knesset panel Monday, Oct. 16.

Israel has so far refrained from protesting to Rome against the Aster 15 sale - any more than it has to Washington, the UN Security Council or UNIFIL over illegal Hizballah movements and arms-smuggling.

The Aster 15 is manufactured by France’s Aerospatiale and Thompson-CSF; its guidance system by the Alenia/Finmeccanica of Italy. Launched from seaborne or land bases, it is designed to hit “maneuverable targets” - aircraft, helicopters, drones or missiles. With a warhead of 3.20 kilos of explosives, the missile has a range of up to 30 km and a maximum speed of 3,600 kph. Aster 15’s two stages are a solid propellant booster and a “dart” equipped with a seeker, a sustainer motor, a proximity fuse and a blast fragmentation warhead.

Most significantly, the French-Italian projectile is the only Western surface-to-air missile with an active guidance system capable of last-minute corrections of targeting at the moment of interception. In the hands of the Lebanese army (and its Hizballah component), the Aster 15 will directly jeopardize Israel’s aerial surveillance of Hizballah and other hostile movements in Lebanon.

DEBKAfile’s political sources once again note the Olmert government’s virtual concealment of the impending threat, its blind eye to UNIFIL’s impotence and its failure to raise an outcry against the missile’s impending delivery to Beirut. Israel’s leaders are strongly motivated by their need to stick to the empty boast of military gains in the Lebanon War and the portrayal of the international force’s deployment in the South as a diplomatic triumph.

In contrast, the teams investigating the IDF’s performance in the war are coming up daily with findings of gross mismanagement. The Israeli missile ship hit by an Iranian anti-ship C-208 cruise missile July 14 - for the loss of four men - was found in the latest report to have omitted to activate the ship’s four missile defense systems, including the Barak anti-missile missile. The ship sailed dangerously close to the Beirut coast with none of the 80 officers and crew manning lookout or attack positions. The panel concluded that there was nothng to stop Hizballah sinking the frigate by ramming it with an explosives-laden boat

We need the guts to say no to Rice | Jerusalem Post

American foreign policy has proven incompetent on so many levels, and this is the latest -- pretending that the Palestinians are at all ready to manage concessions in a positive and moderate way. The fastest way to a true improvement in the life of the Palestinians while still preserving a modicum of security for Israel in the interim as well as providing any chance of long term peace is to vigorously explore the Palestinian confederation idea with Jordan. Any other idea is folly and better off ignoed.

We need the guts to say no to Rice | Jerusalem Post

Electricity Challenges: Less Power to the People - WSJ.com

Less Power to the People - WSJ.com

China's Reserves Near Milestone, Underscoring Its Financial Clout - WSJ.com

China's Reserves Near Milestone, Underscoring Its Financial Clout - WSJ.com

Can You Tell a Sunni From a Shiite? - New York Times

Can You Tell a Sunni From a Shiite? - New York Times

In Iran, Two Power Centers Vie Amid Standoff Over Nuclear Fuel - WSJ.com

This Wall Street Journal article is well worth reading for an introductory presentation of the various shades of the internal power structure of Iran. For a deeper understanding on the Shiite power structure, also read the monograph from the Washington Institute "The Last Marja: Sistani and the End of Traditional Religious Authority in Shiism" (the author, Mehdi Khalaji, has a fascinating background and is the son of an Iranian Ayatollah).

In Iran, Two Power Centers Vie Amid Standoff Over Nuclear Fuel - WSJ.com

U.S. Softens North Korea Sanctions Proposal After Objections From China and Russia - New York Times

Despite the strong headline, things seem to be moving forward on sanctions against North Korea. However, the Chinese and Russian hesitance to putting Section VII sanctions in a UN resolution on Korean (i.e., implying military threat to enforce the sanctions) is undoubtably a bad omen for our ability to achieve anything meaningful on Iran -- which, after all, has oil as additional leverage.

Broader Question on China: Where are Nixon and Kissinger when you need them? This North Korea article leads to a thought vis a vis our ability to influence the international community on Iran, and international politics in general: If there is a way for us to get to a "grand bargain" in our relationship with the Chinese, with whose economy we are hopelessly entwined, now is the time to achieve this and attempt to isolate Russia and force it to be a more responsible player (as both China's greatest consumer and overwhelming debtor, we have a lot of leverage and common interest in international stability). The challenge, of course is that China has its own interests and Russia is experienced from the Cold War days of playing this three way relationship -- most importantly, today Russia has the added leverage of oil resources, with which to smooth their relationship with the Chinese.

Back to Iran: Today, the Chinese and Russian approach towards nuclear proliferation by states that we consider destabilizing to the international order gives us no solace. Unless this can somehow change, my fears are basically reinforced that we are going to be faced with the stark choice on Iran of: 1. acceptance of a nuclear Iran, or 2. military actions without the "broad support of the UN" (If we are lucky maybe we can get an embargo approved by NATO, but that probably won't do the job and will just inflame the situation unless we are willing to follow through with direct air strikes, the assurance of success of which is uncertain). Otherwise we have to hope for a miracle, which usually isn't a good policy option. Miracles can include the death of Supreme Leader of Iran Kameini and the succession of a more responsible, careful regime, something of a "people's revolution" in Iran, a miraculous decision by the Iranians that you get more with honey than with vinegar, or some kind of grand diplomatic bargain to assure Iranian stability in exchange for a cessation of nukes development (so far beyond the reach of the midgets running our foreign policy establishment).

U.S. Softens North Korea Sanctions Proposal After Objections From China and Russia - New York Times

Across Europe, Worries on Islam Spread to Center - New York Times

The article linked below is well worth reading. The Europeans have begun to realize, almost across the board, that it will soon be too late for their societies unless they can figure out a way to assimilate Muslim transplants into their culture, or otherwise deal with the often violent tendencies of Muslim culture when confronted with "sacreligious" criticism (basically, any criticism of their religion or its values). While some moderate Muslims have called for non-violent protest and social discourse (i.e., Western values) and a halt to Muslim violence that seems to come out of every Western cartoon or other negative pronouncement about Islam, it is clear that their is a strong tolerance of such violence in Muslim culture and leadership in the West that either has to change or be eradicated from our midst. Europe does not have the US "melting pot" experience of digesting immigrants into our general value system (though, to be fair, we may now be choking on too many immigrants from Latin American countries, and are not as successful into turning them into Americans who become part of our culture). In the US, the "American Dream" has allowed this country to digest "even" Muslims from Arab countries, though ethnic separatism, "tolerance", inferior "values" education and perhaps, a failing of our certainty in the superiority of our culture (at least within our own shores) have started to fray the threads of this integrating capability that has been successful for hundreds of years here.

When the Pope made his carefully calculated remarks "quoting" a medieval observation regarding the violence of Islam through the ages, he was kicking off his campaign to save European civilization from meekly melting away under the population wave and negative forces of the Islamic invasion of Europe. He is in the midst of urging Europe to turn away from secularization and moral relativism and to return to its Christian roots, and reasserting certainty and confidence in its values.

The handwringing Liberals of all stripes will be very concerned that this trend will just exascerbate the dangers of repression of other views in the US and Europe and the beginning of a great Crusade to force our views on other societies (as they whine today about the threat that the "Christian Right" poses to the American Way). However, isn't it enough to simply want to maintain the value systems that have made American and European culture generally successful and flourishing (subject to several horribly violent spasms) for the past 200 or so years? What is the alternative, head dresses for all our women?

Across Europe, Worries on Islam Spread to Center - New York Times

Arab leaders sweat Iran | Chicago Tribune

Op-Ed Subtitle: "Sunnis start to see Shiite state as a bigger thret than Israel". As we have said here before, the opportunity to use wedge politics between the Sunnis and Shiites is there, and can be used to advance both American and Israeli interests, as well as provide progress on the Palestinian problem. But inspired leadership is required...

Arab leaders sweat Iran | Chicago Tribune

North Korea -- Mutually Assured Disruption - New York Times

The views of an early speechwriter for President Bush on what needs to be done now with regard to North Korea, both for its own actions as well as a deterrent to Iran.

To sum up Frum's message: "America has three key strategic goals in the wake of the North Korean nuclear test. The first is to enhance the security of those American allies most directly threatened by North Korean nuclear weapons: Japan and South Korea. The second is to exact a price from North Korea for its nuclear program severe enough to frighten Iran and any other rogue regimes considering following the North Korean path. The last is to punish China. North Korea could not have completed its bomb if China, which provides the country an immense amount of food and energy aid, had strongly opposed it. Apparently, Beijing sees some potential gain in the uncertainty that North Korea’s status brings. If China can engage in such conduct cost-free, what will deter Russia from aiding the Iranian nuclear program, or Pakistan someday aiding a Saudi or Egyptian one?"

Mutually Assured Disruption - New York Times

WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How would you grade the U.S.'s handling of the "axis of evil"?

Results so far (1900 voters):
A 4%
B 12%
C 13%
D 18%
F 53%

...and THIS is from a Wall Street Journal-reading crowd...
WSJ.com Forums :: View topic - How would you grade the U.S.'s handling of the "axis of evil"?

Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war/Takeaways - Haaretz of Israel Quoting Jane's Intelligence Journal

Hopefully our President does not repeat his mistake from several years ago and believe that, when he sees into Mr. Putin's soul, he sees anything other than utter darkness.

It seems pretty clear from the articles below that Russia is back at it's old games again, trying to assert its power in the Middle East by standing in the way of each and every constructive, peace-seeking action attempted by the Western world (e.g., the UN's deployment in Lebanon). This makes it all the more clear that we should not expect Soviet -- whoops, I mean Russian -- assistance in dealing with Iran. Even more disturbing is that, whereas during the Cold War, Soviet actions were constrained by both a clear memory of the horrors of WW II and certain rules of the game (including a strong resistance to doing anything that would allow satellites or "non-aligned" states to take control of non-conventional weapons), today those rules do not seem to apply, which makes the world that much more dangerous...

Summary of Articles on Recent Russian Involvement in Lebanon and Syria: I'm too cheap to buy a subscription to the very informative Jane's intelligence and defense periodical, but Ze'ev Schiff of Israel's Haaretz published the article linked below highlighting Jane's reporting that during the Summer War in Lebanon, "Hezbollah received direct intelligence support from Syria, using data collected by listening posts jointly manned by Russian and Syrian crews. Hezbollah was also fed intelligence from new listening posts built on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, which are operated jointly with Iran. "

Debka separately reports today ("Debka Russian Lebanon Intel Buildup") that two Russian Chechen GRU platoons, Vostok and Zapad, are setting up their headquarters and surveillance posts in the Lebanese port of Sidon and giving Syrian intelligence a window on their input. According to Debka, "the carve-up of South Lebanon since Israeli troops pulled out is unfolding as follows: The UN force mandated by UN Security Council resolution 1701 is centered in the Tyre region, whereas Hizballah, Syria’s supporters and the Russian intelligence platoons have taken control of Sidon further up the Mediterranean coast. The three elements are ideally positioned for Hizballah to control the south Lebanese coastal region and for the Russians and Syrians to keep track of the military movements of the Israeli army, UNIFIL and the European naval units off the Lebanese shore."

Bottom Line Observations and Significance of these Developments: The Russian intelligence presence in Lebanon and close cooperation with the Syrians and Hezbullah:

--Puts UN troops at greater risk from terrorists;

--Further undermines Israel's deterrent capability, in that another dangerous hurdle was just placed in the path of Israel's ability to strike back at Syrian resupply of Hezbollah (of which the Israelis have nothing so far) -- possible casualties to Russian interests in Lebanon, as well as early warning of any Israeli attempt at such actions;

--Israel's military capability to do anything to Iran is also undermined, based on the logical assumption that if Israel commenced military activities targetting Iran -- or its interests in Syria -- the Russians could possibly see it sooner from their intelligence posts in Lebaonon and Syria and relay the information to the Iranians. Similarly, any use of the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, against Iran or elsewhere, also just took an intelligence hit.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. It feels like the 70's again, triangulating between the Chinese and Russians, though this time there is a third and more dangerous enemy, Islamic extremism...


Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war - Haaretz - Israel News

the falling Deficit -- the Best Kept Secret in Washington --Tax Tidal Wave - WSJ.com

Don't get me wrong -- our deficit is uncomfortably too high, but as this article indicates, it is narrowing due to greatly increased tax revenues. You won't read about this in the Democratic National Party platform or in the NY Times -- lower tax rates (helped by lower interest rates) resulting in higher tax revenues from the "rich and big corporations". While I was (and am) for a war tax surcharge, if for no other reason to remind all of us that we are at war (not just the southern families with children in the military), I do believe, from my Univsity of Chicago days, that lower tax rates result in greater income production and higher tax revenues. And this is proof.

Tax Tidal Wave - WSJ.com

Pyongyang Phooey - WSJ.com

Excellent article linked below on the North Korean situation and how they are, very rationally, playing towards "upending the contemporary economic, political and military order in Northeast Asia".

Pyongyang Phooey - WSJ.com

"No Excuses for Terror" British Documentary

Click on the link below to see a British TV documentary that makes the politically incorrect assertion that British leftists have it wrong when they blame Israel and the West for terrorism, instead of blaming the terrorists. This link is to the HonestReporting UK Website, which connects to You Tube for the video.
Media Backspin

Al Qaeda Getting Active on the Palestinian Front in its War Against the West

Significance of the following report and analysis from Debka: The Palestinians come closer to civil war, Al Qaeda increases its involvement in the Palestinian internal political situation, and all of this places more pressure on the Jordanians and Israelis to figure out a way to do something aobut the Palestinian situaiton and buttress Abbas and the secular Fatah "moderates". Again, as we said a day or two ago in our blog posting "Israelis Reach Out...", one possible solution is to move forward with a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation plan for the West Bank, with Saudi and Egyptian diplomatic support.

---

DEBKAfile Reports: An al Qaeda-in-Palestine video posted on internal Hamas Web site Wednesday Oct. 4 betrays active operational presence in Gaza and West Bank October 5, 2006, 2:05 PM (GMT+02:00) Israeli, American and Egyptian security services find disturbing elements in the video which showed the blurred image of a man calling himself “Abu Hafs,” who claimed the killing of Col. Jad Tayeh (picture), Abu Mazen’s top intelligence officer and 4 bodyguards in a drive-by shooting ambush in Gaza on Sept. 15. DEBKAfile: Tayeh was Abbas’ go-between with Egyptian intelligence. “Abu Hafs” claims he was also his liaison with the Mossad and other intelligence services “which stab a knife in the backs of the Palestinian nation.” The al Qaeda operative states clearly that Abu Mazen and his Palestinian clandestine services are in al Qaeda’s sights: Abu Hafs claims: “American security companies hold the military and security of Palestine, have invested capital within the state, and Palestinian leaders do not use the funds for the people or care for them when crises arise.” The al Qaeda spokesman goes on to threaten: “To all those who are alert, wake up! The coming danger does not accept halfway solutions. It is a war without indulgence; it is a war that will not protect a traitor or an informer, or a security organizer. They will be an aimed target for our swords, if he did not repent and return to the lines of his people.” This is the first time since al Qaeda established a Palestinian presence in Gaza after Israel’s Sept. 2005 withdrawal that the jihadist group has come out in the open and confirmed that presence. Documents said removed from the dead intelligence officer’s body were displayed. It is also the first time that al Qaeda has posted a video on a Hamas password-protected forum, indicating someone in Palestinian Hamas or the Popular Resistance Committees terrorist umbrella is interacting with the al Qaeda cell. Four additional points stand out: 1. Col. Tayeh worked strictly under cover. Very few people in Abu Mazen’s inner circle knew of his movements. The day of his murder, he was in Cairo on a secret mission for Abbas when the Palestinian Authority chairman ordered him by phone to return to Gaza at once. Very few people in Abbas’ bureau knew about the call, not even his family. So how did al Qaeda obtain the schedule and the Palestinian colonel’s return route to Gaza? The documents displayed on the al Qaeda video are records of Palestinian secret service money movements in American and European banks. The form and content of the 5 minutes 25 seconds clip betray a deep al Qaeda penetration of the top levels of Palestinian leadership and intelligence ranks. 2. It was released at the very moment that Abu Mazen and visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice began their news conference in Ramallah. The video tape was clearly put together well in advance for a calculated effect and indicates al Qaeda maintains active operational cells in the West Bank as well as Gaza. 3. For the ambush which killed the Palestinian intelligence officer to work, he must have been tailed on his journey from Cairo to Gaza by trackers setting out from Cairo or Sinai who reporting on his time of arrival in Gaza. This indicates operational links between al Qaeda cells in Egypt, Sinai and Gaza. 4. This was not the first time al Qaeda claimed the murder of Col. Tayeh. A previous video was released on one of Hamas’s protected forums on Sept. 20, but went unnoticed by Israel, US or Egyptian counter-terror authorities.

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Palestinian in-fighting provokes despair, frustration | International News | Reuters.com

The Palestinians are becoming unhinged and may quickly descend into fratricidal civil war. While it would not be a bad thing to see Fatah finally take on -- and destroy -- Hamas, the risks of a civil war are great to Israel and Jordan. My bet: the Jordanians are watching events very carefully. In a perfect scenario, they wait for it to get worse, for the sides to bloody themselves significantly, and then refloat the Palestinian- Jordanian confederation idea I mentioned yesterday.

Palestinian in-fighting provokes despair, frustration | International News | Reuters.com

Israel's New Reality

The attached article from Commentary is a long discourse not only on the failures of the "post-Zionism" ethos in Israel (as most pointedly illustrated by Israel's performance during the Summer War in Lebanon), but also about the awakening of the West to the challenges it faces from Islamic radicalism (as the author points out, Israel has never enjoyed the level of international support, or at least patience, that it did during most of the Lebanese War because everyone was rooting for Israel to beat Hezbollah -- and was dissapointed by the result), and where Israel may go from here.

Long, but well worth the read.

Unity Coalition for Israel

HonestReporting Movie: Disproportionate

See the film linked below on Israel's "Disproportionate" response to Hezbolla.

HonestReporting Movie: Disproportionate

Israelis Reach Out to Arab Nations That Share Fear of Ascendant Iran - WSJ.com

The Wall Street Journal article referenced below ties back to several of the ideas that we have previously blogged about:

-- there is a community of interests between Israel and Sunni Arab regimes, which became apparent during the Summer War in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Basically, the enemy of my enemy is my friend -- Iran-led Shiite ascendancy is not good for anyone.

--Iran is as much an intermediate term threat to Sunni Arab regimes, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt, as it is an immediate treat to Israel -- and these Arab governments know it.

--the Iranians have built up their capabilities and influence in Iraq to push this battle forward for supremacy of the Arab world.

--the Palestinian issue, while perhaps not as important in the hearts and minds of Sunni Arab leadership, is very important in the Arab Street. The views onthe Arab Street have an impact on the thinking of these authoritarian regimes, which are afraid of the increasing influences in their societies of radical groups such as the Islamic Brotherhood, Al Qaeda etc...

--We in the US must do something to help bring an alliance of convenience together between the Sunni Arabs and Israel, hoping that this can be the basis for some sort of longer term relationship. We tried by giving the Israelis unprecedented support to defeat the Hezbollah Iranian proxy during the Summer, and Israel's leadership let us (and themselves) down.

--Lastly, in spite of weak international support of a sanctions program to date, if a coherent plan is not soon adopted that is realistically capable of influencing Iranian behavior with regard to the development of its nuclear war fighting capabilities, the top is going to blow off the Middle East within the next year or so, and with it, very possibly the world economy.

Secretary of State Rice is in the Middle East right now talking to the relevant parties.

What to do?

1. Start moving towards a real exit strategy from Iraq, NOW. Last night my dinner guests had a heated debate on this issue, with the sides basically falling out between,

A. "we can't withdraw or it will be a disaster for us in the Arab world, we will lose any influence we have, the Iranians will take over, and we need to have 500,000 troops there to win it", and
B. ""it's all Bush's fault (so?) and we have to get out now, forget about the consequences".

Just as Westmoreland's calls for more and more troops to Vietnam had little impact on the ultimate result of the war, I think any such attempt in Iraq will just embolden our foes, stir up greater anti-Americanism in the Arab world, hurt our "moderate" Sunni allies, kill more Americans, divide our society further on the importance of this global crusade against Islamo-fascism and have no productive lasting effect. Furthermore, "more troops" doesn't mean that we would have the political will to put them in harms way. On the other hand, we do not want to leave a terrible vacuum in Iraq.

As I have previously suggested in my blog posting of September 3rd, "Global Predictions, Part 2", we need to employ a "divide and conquer" approach in the Middle East, perhaps better phrased as "wedge politics". This means using the Sunnis to contain the growing Shiite Iranian influence, and the first place to do so is in the Iranian civil war. We have spent close to 20 years arming the Egyptian military to be the mightiest in the Arab world. The Saudis and Jordanians also have a lot to lose if the core of Iraq goes Iranian, or at least Shiite radical. We must pressure the Arab League, led by these Sunni states, to make the Iraqi problem an Arab World problem. Optimally, they would call for our withdrawal, to be supplanted by Arab League peacekeepers. This can be trumpetted as a victory of Arab nationalism, a defeat of US imperialism, and help the core Sunni regimes develop some nationalistic support for themselves in their Arab streets. It would have to be positioned, to the extent possible, as not a bailout of the US by its Arab lackeys, but as an angry statement by the Arabs that "the US interfered and screwed up, and we now have to take matters in our own hands". The discredited Bush administration has little capital left to achieve anything productive in the world, but orchestrating its own "defeat" in Iraq, followed by an Arab attempt at stabilization of that country (and establishment of a sizable Arab force on Iran's borders, by the way), could be the one thing that we can achieve (kind of like the "Mouse that Roared" in reverse). For the Arab's to take on this thankless task, we have to convince them that our abandonment of Iraq is coming soon, and that things will be a lot worse if they don't do something about it.

We can withdraw our troops to Kurdish Iraq (upon their invitation), which will serve as an added pressure point against the Iranians (and a protective measure agaisnt Turkish invasion of that region).

2. The Israeli-Palestinian Issue: While Condi pathetically moves around, with the urging of the feckless French, to try to "moderate" Syria, or alternatively try to make an onion smell like a peach by talking as if a Palestinian unity government between Hamas and Fatah could serve any useful objective, she should be spending alot more time trying to get Jordan, Israel and Abbas to talk about dusting off an old play from the playbook of the Arab-Israeli conflict that could constitute the political equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass in football -- providing the Palestinian, Arab and Sunni world with the short term victory of a Palestinian entity under ultimate Arab control. That is, confederation of a Palestinian West Bank province under the State of Jordan, in a "trusteeship" of sorts to help it develop, over the next generation or so, its governmental institutions to the point that it can achieve independence. The West Bank would no longer be "subjugated" by the Israelis, but some modicum of dependable security for Israel would be ensured through Jordanian control (how many problems have their been on the Jordanian-Israeli border during the past 10 Years? One or two?).

Why would the Jordanians do this? Besides taking the Palestinian issue away from the radical Islamists on the Arab street in Jordan (which is 2/3rds Palestinian by population), and hence take the pressure of revolt off of the Jordanian king, it would also allow him to stem the tide of the West Bank becomig a Hamasistan onhis longest border. Now is the time to do this, while Abbas still can deliver something, before Hamas has taken over complete power.

By making some positive progress on both the Iraqi and Palestinian situations, the Sunni Arabs could strike a blow against both extremism in its own street as well as strike a blow against Iran and take some of the wind out of their sails. Iran can be expected to tep up its terrorism in Iraq and elsewhere inthe world, but if they dared hit at the Sunnis at home, they woudl sharpen the focus on a Sunni-Shiite battle, rather than an Islamic-Western one. I would much rather spend the next 10 years encouraging economic liberalization and development in the Arab world, undermining the growth of extremism while the Sunnis and Shiites duke it out, rather than spend the next ten years with the US in direct conflict with the entire Arab world.


Israelis Reach Out to Arab Nations That Share Fear of Ascendant Iran - WSJ.com

Making Peace with your Adversaries During the Days of Awe

During the Days of Awe, between Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, and Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement when a Jew's fate is sealed in the book of life by G-d for the coming year, most Jews with any residual sense of Jewish consciousness go through some form of self assessment and approach towards personal improvement (this is loosely similar to the secular "New Year's resolution" thought process, but perhaps deeper). During this period we recite in our prayers that (I paraphrase) "through charity, repentance and prayer may we avert the evil decree for the year to come". Hence, part of the ritual of many Jews during this period is to generally try to "catch up" religiously for what they didn't do or did wrong during the year (resulting, for example, the increased synagogue attendance throughout the world on the Sabbath between Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur).

Fortunately for the more observant (or more neurotic) of the tribe, the Jewish religion provides several specific tasks to help Jews repent during this period, and thereby expunge many of their sins from the prior year and help secure a good spot in the book of life for the
coming one. As aforementioned, these include the specific tasks of giving to charity and prayer, which help us out of the sins that we committed against G-d and his rules. But the act of repentance is most interesting, and particularly the aspect of repentance that requires
that we ask the forgiveness of anyone we have wronged during the prior year (this applies to resolving your second set of sins, those between you and your fellow man). As one of those "catch-up" Jews who attended synagogue yesterday, I was privileged to participate in a lesson on this subject conducted by our rabbi. I will not try to recount the entire lesson, which was excellent, but will briefly summarize a couple of basic points, and since this is, after all, a blog on world affairs, try to tie it to the hope for more productive global human behavior in the
coming year. The concept of asking for forgiveness is not as easy as it would first appear:

--The act of seeking forgiveness in this context serves a very human need to "let it out" and discuss an issue of conflict. As we all know (I think), a little conflict can turn into a big conflict, and source of immense hatred and destruction, if we keep the perceived injustice bottled up inside of us, or do not "talk it out" with the other party -- this doesn't mean that such talk will resolve the issue, but the act of direct communication serves a pressure release purpose all into and of itself. As my rabbi -- and my wife -- says, the one who gets the ulcer and develops the longer lasting, deeper and potentially explosive feelings on an issue is not the one who "lets it out", but the one who keeps it bottled up inside of him.

--It must be a sincere desire and request for forgiveness in recognition of our wronging that other person at some point in time, not necessarily in the year in which the forgiveness is sought (i.e., it is never to late to ask for forgiveness).

--In seeking repentance for the sin in question, you must seek forgiveness at least three times of the person who was hurt -- if they reject your request the first time, you must seek it again. After the third time of being denied, you are generally "off the hook" and the onus is on the other person.

--Forgiveness doesn't mean forgetting -- for it to be an acceptable act of forgiveness, the person who is granting forgiveness doesn't also have to forget. However, just as the person seeking forgiveness must be serious and contrite in his request for it, the forgiver must also mean
to forgive, though it is a permissible forgiveness for him to not necessarily be prepared to "forget" the wrongdoing. However, the forgiver must not continue to hold spite in his heart for the wrongdoing and wrongdoer over the event. Hence, it is not a genuine forgiveness to forgive by saying, "I 'forgive you' because I will show that I am bigger than you are". That is not forgiveness, but merely an alternate form of revenge.

OK, how do I tie this to international affairs as we approach Yom Kippur?

--Firstly, as I said in my preceding blog, "Column One: A Prayer for 5767 for the Jewish People, and All People", we must know what we stand for and what we believe in, and not let our adversaries shape who we are. If you have confidence in your core beliefs, you can communicate them better, which avoids misunderstandings in negotiation and sets the broad lines for doable compromise and conflict resolution. If you don't know what your core beliefs are, or can be defined by your adversaries in reflexive negatives, you shouldn't be talking in the first place. If you are Israel, those beliefs include a Jewish state of Israel within secure borders, with full recognition and peaceful ties with the Arab world, and for the Western community, an Iran that does not have the ability or intent to create nuclear weapons to threaten its neighbors or the world.

--The act of talking out one's reasons for grievance in a sincere fashion directly to the other person -- not through newspapers or other intermediaries designed to score points, but directly -- is a critical step to resolving conflict, or at least letting some pressure out in
words, which would otherwise be expressed with guns. A former partner of mine is Madelaine Albright's son-in-law. He implied to me that her view towards trying to keep Israel and the Palestinians talking in the Mideast conflict was not that it would be solved tomorrow -- it would take a generation or more of re-education and healing to do that. Instead, she thought that the more you got people to talk and make their views and historic grievances clear in international relations, the greater the chance that something productive could come out of it, or at least that you'd keep a cap on violence. Perhaps her error in that regard was that the communication, instead of being conducted broadly between peoples and with the patience that is the way of doing things in the Mideast, was being conducted on a Western timetable ("lets get to a solution yesterday") primarily through an aging, spineless and Machiavellian revolutionary (Arafat) who cared more about his survival than the good of is people. Another lesson learned from that one was the need to get a broader constituency in the Arab world behind Arafat for compromising with Israel, because he was too scared to negotiate the
presence of a non-Islamic state in the Middle East on is own (ironically enough, the Saudis, threatened today by Islamic extremism, now are accepting of a final settlement with Israel). Since the problems that are difficult to solve usually involve a two way street of grievance and
are not just one-sided, both parties must be talking these things out with the other, not over the other's head. Hence, an international peace conference run by Europeans to force Israel and the Palestinians to "make peace" will never have a positive impact. It is up to the Palestinian people and leadership, and the Israeli people and leadership to speak to each other directly and make peace directly, against a greater backdrop of support from their respective camps (i.e., the Arab world and the Western world). Each must air its grievances to the other and try to educate the other as to its positions. Likewise, for the US-Iranian situation that we now face. President Bush made his first attempt at the UN last week to go straight to the Iranian people with is quest for a just and peaceful relationship between Iran and the US. A ton more has to be done in this regard, after 25+ years of conflict, if we are ever to have the opportunity to bring Iran back into the community of non-radical nations. They have a lot to say, and we have a lot to say. Let's say it directly. I thought that President Bush blew a great opportunity top break through the noise, in this regard, when he failed to respond to the Iranian President's rambling and bizarre letter to him of this past Spring. The penchant of short term-thinking, Western political leadership to "put off to tomorrow (when things demand attention) what we can begin to resolve today" has really hurt us vis a vis Iran. Think how different things could be today if we had approached beginning a relationship with
Iran 10 years ago (when Clinton was president) or 5 years ago, post-9/11, in the way we have with the Vietnamese, with whom we have even more negative "history"?

--Both must listen to what the other has to say and treat it with respect, rather than just dismiss it, and the best way to get the more intransigent guy to listen to you is to listen to him. This doesn't mean agreeing with him or compromising your principles, but instead of name
calling, it does mean listening and attempting to find points of common values or understanding. On the Iran issue, I believe that the European-Russian initiative to take them at their word and discuss giving them "peaceful" nuclear power, if perhaps just part of a
charade, is an important part of negotiation that appeals to Iranian people who ave been told the "peaceful nuclear power story. When the Palestinians complain about their ancestors' evacuation, forced or voluntary, from villages inside Israel, we can't ignore the seriousness
of that to them and must show empathy, even if we believe that this evacuation is offset by an almost identical number of Jews forced out of Arab lands, and that their solution to this issue (repatriation back to their villages in Israel) is a non-starter. Similarly, they must be
brought to understand, on a community to community level, the corrosive impact to their own interests of their attempt to recreate history to negate any Jewish significance to Jerusalem (or refute that the Jews of today aren't the "real" Jews of the bible), in refutation of the Bible
and of the Q'uran, or to hurt Israel's legitimacy somehow by refuting the Holocaust.

--Based upon the foregoing communication, both sides have to be brought to the ability to apologize for past wrongs. I know this sounds wacky in a world where we are taught by lawyers never to concede when we do something wrong for fear of creating precedent or liability (and the same thinking is held by diplomats), but hearing someone apologize to you for hurting you, even if not intentional, goes a long way in human psychology towards forgiveness and, perhaps more importantly, towards compromise. How many times have we heard a doctor's patient who receives incorrect care say that if only the doctor had apologized, they never would have sued? In the Arab world, where political discourse at the level of the "Arab Street"seems to be pathologically consumed with the concept of not being treated with respect and as an equal by the West (and more importantly, by their own leaders), and which seems to be suffers from a massive inferiority complex, how powerful could the effect be of an expression that we both suffer pain, we feel yours and we apologize for what we did to cause it? The order of this dialogue must be carefully choreographed, and it requires brave leaders on both sides to make it work in a reciprocal manner, but it can be a powerful part of generational healing, compromise and perhaps reformation of the Islamic world.

If we attempt to take the lessons of repentance during the Days of Awe, and apply them to our international discourse -- why still maintaining our core principles and full range of options -- we may have a chance for some progress, both personal and internationally, in the coming
years. I am not urging a disarmament or a Woodstockian's image of a utopian future, but we must look to our principles for a path to a better future. At times, given the leadership on the other side, this approach may look hopeless, but we must continue to try.

Shana Tovah.

Column One: A prayer for 5767 for the Jewish People, and All People

Thanks to Phyllis and Bud for bringing this op-ed piece by Caroline Glick to my attention. For almost all Jews who still identify themselves as Jews, these days before Yom Kippur are the Days of Awe and self examination (more on this from me in a posting to come later this morning). One take away from this moment in history, whether you are a Jew, a Christian and/or an American (all of these being endangered or threatened species, following the bloodfest of hatred at the UN last week and the global Islamic protests against the Pope), is the importance of defining ourselves by who we are and what we stand for, and not letting our enemies define us in accordance with their agendas. As Ms. Glick states,

"...in recent years, rather than recognize the prejudice of our detractors, we have devoted ourselves to attempting to understand and so justify the hatred they heap upon us.

We tell ourselves we are hated because we are too strong — or because we are too weak. We are hated because we are too religious — or we are hated because we are not religious enough. We are hated because we insist on defending Israel — or we are hated because we are willing to compromise on Israel.

...we are not hated because of what we do, we are hated because we are Jews. In light of this, the best way to defend ourselves, the best way to safeguard our freedom and our heritage is to embrace and celebrate our identity as Jews. As Elie Wiesel once explained to me, the key to defending ourselves is to never allow our haters to tell us who we are. "Hatred only defines only the haters," he said."

The foregoing words might apply well to any minority or detested people. As an American, I can easily see these words applying to me, in a world awash with anti-Americanism. However, the Jewish nation is smaller and weaker and needs a strong self-identity even more. Jewish people will always be too fractious a people to be united in anything except perhaps when our survival is clearly threatened. However, if this year we all, in our own way, seek a way to closer identify with our people, our heritage and our place in history, we will be better positioned to resist the corrosive effect of anti-Semitism and to make this a better world, in year 5767.

Happy New Year.

Column One: A prayer for 5767 | Jerusalem Post