Monday, December 10, 2007

Iran 'hoodwinked' CIA over nuclear plans - Telegraph

Iran 'hoodwinked' CIA over nuclear plans - Telegraph: "British spy chiefs have grave doubts that Iran has mothballed its nuclear weapons programme, as a US intelligence report claimed last week, and believe the CIA has been hoodwinked by Teheran."

Friday, December 07, 2007

Column One: The abandonment of the Jews | Jerusalem Post

Column One: The abandonment of the Jews | Jerusalem Post

"The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions is the political version of a tactical nuclear strike on efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear bombs.

The NIE begins with the sensationalist opening line: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Teheran halted its nuclear weapons program." But the rest of the report contradicts the lead sentence. For instance, the second line says, "We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Teheran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

Indeed, contrary to that earth-shattering opening, the NIE acknowledges that the Iranians have an active nuclear program and that they are between two and five years away from nuclear capabilities."


Jackson Diehl - Fuses in Gaza - washingtonpost.com

Jackson Diehl - Fuses in Gaza - washingtonpost.com:

And this article from the Washington Post -- a good day for showing Gaza Palestinians for who they are (maybe they next ask the logical question of why the Egyptians should be permitted to allow this to happen while we pay them $2.5 Billion a year of military aid):

"The Islamic Hamas movement, which won the 2006 legislative elections and took sole control of Gaza in June, spent the week of Annapolis quietly doing what it has been doing every week for the past six months: smuggling tons of explosives, rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, anti-aircraft missiles and Katyusha rockets through tunnels from the Sinai peninsula in Egypt. The explosives are used to make the crude Qassam rockets that are aimed mostly at the southern Israeli towns of Sderot and Ashkelon. The Katyushas, new to Gaza, are being saved for the all-out war for which both Hamas and the Israeli army are vigorously preparing."

FT.com / In depth - Another day, another bombardment

FT.com / In depth - Another day, another bombardment

For the Financial Times to print his story is telling -- a sign that the efforts of organizations like Media Central to "tell the whole story" about Israel in the international press is succeeding.

The lead-in to this story:

"The small Israeli town of Sderot is enveloping itself in a blanket of concrete. The grey material is everywhere. Schools and nurseries crouch below hulking canopies, dozens of bomb-shelters dot the urban landscape and even the bulletproof windows of one school have been provided with thick overhanging slabs.

One by one, the town’s open-air bus stops are being replaced with concrete cubicles. Painted bright yellow, the roadside shelters are adorned on the inside with hastily scribbled insults to Hamas, the Islamist group, and other graffiti, one of which reads: “Relax – we are praying.”"

Monday, November 26, 2007

On the Jewish Question - WSJ.com

On the Jewish Question - WSJ.com

"If the issue is about the size of Israel, then we have a straightforward border problem, like Alsace-Lorraine or Texas. That is to say, not easy, but possible to solve in the long run, and to live with in the meantime.

If, on the other hand, the issue is the existence of Israel, then clearly it is insoluble by negotiation. There is no compromise position between existing and not existing, and no conceivable government of Israel is going to negotiate on whether that country should or should not exist."

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Petraeus's Iraq - WSJ.com

Petraeus's Iraq - WSJ.com

See attached article, regarding the tipping point that we may have reached in this war--

"What I got was a soldier's sense of what's happening on the ground and, although the jury is still out on the surge, I came to the conclusion that we may now be reaching the "culminating point" in this war. The culminating point marks the shift in advantage from one side to the other, when the outcome becomes irreversible: The potential loser can inflict casualties, but has lost all chance of victory. The only issue is how much longer the war will last, and what the butcher's bill will be."

Bush's place in history for this war might not end up so badly after all. Yes, it has been horribly executed, and there will be a lot more blood spilt, but lets look at what it achieves for us if we don't cut and run:

-- effective stewardship and military presence over one-third of the oil reserves in the Middle East. It would be nice if we were not so dependent on foreign oil, and this government (as well as all its predecessors) has done woefully little to decrease our dependency on foreign oil (both a grave national security threat and an ecological one), but the fact is that we ARE dependent on foreign oil. I hate to be a colonialist, but at least this is for something necessary to maintain our way of life.

--a permanent military presence on Iran's border. Iran has emerged as a regional superpower and a highly disruptive influence internationally to our interests. We have troops in South Korea for a reason, had a large troop presence in Germany for a reason, and , unfortunately, require a large military presence in the heart of the Middle East, on Iran's border, for a reason -- to protect global oil supplies, protect and provide a tripwire for the Gulf Emirates and the Saudis, and protect the greater Middle East from a broader Israeli-Iranian military conflict. We don't like any of this, but it all gets back to oil. With the Russians acting like Soviets, we need this even more today.

--If Iraq is capable of spawning half a democracy (in an Arabic, tribal cultural form of coexistence) and a country with some level of personal liberty and unfettered press, it will have a long term, tectonic plate-shifting impact on the rest of the Arab world. This has to go slow and be organic, not forced on the Middle East as Bush has tried. However, if it happens, it will lead to great er stability over the long run.

This is the bet the Bush administration's historical legacy is now staking, as we cross this culminating tipping point in Iraq. The Iranians, who have been quiet lately in Iraq, aren't going to let it happen quietly, but it looks like it will happen if we stay the course. And we need that oil, and should be praying for this mission's success....

Monday, November 05, 2007

Jim Hoagland - How to Rein in Iran Without War - washingtonpost.com

Jim Hoagland - How to Rein in Iran Without War - washingtonpost.com: "This is one basic that Bush critics frequently overlook -- in part because it gets lost in the overheated 'World War III' rhetoric of the president: The IAEA and the U.N. Security Council have determined that Iran has lied about its nuclear activities and has therefore at least temporarily forfeited its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes. That Iran has gone to great, secretive lengths to create and push forward a bomb-building capability is not a Bush delusion. But neither is it fantasy to say, as do Russia and China, that the Iranians have had great difficulty in getting their system of 2,952 centrifuges at Natanz, south of Tehran, to work effectively. The scenarios provided to Bush by U.S. and Israeli intelligence some years ago on what date Iran would get the bomb have not been validated. Bush does not face the pressure that he once anticipated for a binary, strike or no-strike, decision before he leaves office."

Diplomacy must be accelerated, because there is still an outside chance that it works.

Group Spotlights Jews Who Left Arab Lands - New York Times

Group Spotlights Jews Who Left Arab Lands - New York Times

Sunday, October 28, 2007

IranianRadio - Your Radio! :: View topic - Holocaust Miniseries on Iranian TV

This story illustrates the complexity of Iranian society, and the many and conflicting levels at which they can see things -- they don't think like we do, and our administration has to realize this to deal with Iran effectively.
IranianRadio - Your Radio! :: View topic - Holocaust Miniseries on Iranian TV

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The Clinton Death Cult

The following conspiracy theory email was sent to me by a friend. OK, it could be just the imagination of a "right wing conspiracy", in Hillary's words, but can one also ask whether, "where there is smoke, isn't there usually fire?" How may people do YOU know who have died mysteriously or tragically? Forty seven dead Clinton friends or interested parties, and counting...

"Strange that with Clinton buddies crowding various morgues with suicide(?) gunshot wounds to the back of the head, bodies splattered around parkway poles and doing Superman out of windows, the liberal press has found nothing strange about all of this gruesome business. Check out these facts yourself and be aware that the Mena Airport in Arkansas was a major drug entry point for Central American drug cartels. Bill Clinton was the governor of Arkansas during its heyday. Wonder who's next?"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Victims with ties to the Clinton's


>> Norman Hsu’s life isn’t worth a dime. He’ll die while in prison and never have a chance to testify…
>>
>> Just a quick refresher course lest we forget what has happened to many friends of the Clintons.
>>
>> 1-James McDougal - Clinton's convicted Whitewater partner died of an
>> apparent heart attack, while in solitary confinement. He was a key
>> witness in Ken Starr's investigation.
>>
>> 2 -Mary Mahoney - A former White House intern was murdered July 1997 at a
>> Starbucks Coffee Shop in Georgetown .. The murder happened just after she
>> was to go public with her story of sexual harassment in the White House.
>>
>> 3- Vince Foster - Former White House counselor and colleague of Hillary
>> Clinton at Little Rock's Rose Law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the head, ruled a suicide by the world famous DC Park Police. They are famous for catching those who don't pick up their dogs poop. The suicide weapon was found 10 feet from Foster's body.
>>
>> 4- Ron Brown - Secretary of Commerce and former DNC Chairman. Reported to
>> have died by impact in a plane crash. A pathologist close to the
>> investigation reported that there was a hole in the top of Brown's skull
>> resembling a gunshot wound. At the time of his death Brown was being
>> investigated, and spoke publicly of his willingness to cut a deal with
>> prosecutors. The rest of the people on the plane also died. A few days
>> later the air Traffic controller committed suicide.
>>
>> 5- C. Victor Raiser II- Raiser, a major player in the Clinton fund-
>> raising organization died in a private plane crash in July 1992
>>
>> 6-Paul Tulley - Democratic National Committee Political Director found
>> dead in a hotel room in Little Rock , September 1992. Described by
>> Clinton as a "Dear friend and trusted advisor".
>>
>> 7-Ed Willey - Clinton fund raiser, found dead November 1993 deep in the
>> woods in VA of a gunshot wound to the head. Ruled a suicide. Ed Willey
>> died on the same day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped
>> her in the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey was involved in
>> several Clinton fund raising events.
>>
>> 8-Jerry Parks -Head of Clinton's gubernatorial security team in Little
>> Rock. Gunned down in his car at a deserted intersection outside Little
>> Rock. Park's son said his father was building a dossier on Clinton. He allegedly threatened to reveal this information. After he died the files were mysteriously removed from his house.
>>
>> 9-James Bunch - Died from a gunshot suicide. It was reported that he had
>> a "Black Book" of people which contained names of influential people who
>> visited prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas ..
>>
>> 10-James Wilson - Was found dead in May 1993 from an apparent hanging
>> suicide. He was reported to have ties to Whitewater.
>>
>> 11-Kathy Ferguson- Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny Ferguson, was found
>> dead in May 1994, in her living room with a gunshot to her head. It was
>> ruled a suicide even though there were several packed suitcases, as if
>> she were going somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a co-defendant along with
>> Bill Clinton in the Paula Jones lawsuit. Kathy Ferguson was a possible
>> corroborating witness for Paula Jones.
>>
>> 12-Bill Shelton - Arkansas State Trooper and fiance of Kathy Ferguson.
>> Critical of the suicide ruling of his fiance, he was found dead in June,
>> 1994 of a gunshot wound also ruled a suicide at the grave site of his
>> fiance.
>>
>> 13-Gandy Baugh - Attorney for Clinton's friend Dan Lassater, died by
>> jumping out a window of a tall building January, 1994. His client was a
>> convicted drug distributor.
>>
>> 14-Florence Martin - Accountant & sub-contractor for the CIA, was related
>> to the Barry Seal Mena Airport drug smuggling case. He died of three
>> gunshot wounds.
>>
>> 15- Suzanne Coleman - Reportedly had an affair with Clinton when he was
>> Arkansas Attorney General. Died of a gunshot wound to the back of the
>> head, ruled a suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.
>>
>> 16-Paula Grober - Clinton's speech interpreter for the deaf from 1978
>> until her death December 9, 1992. She died in a one car accident.
>>
>> 17-Danny Casolaro - Investigative reporter. Investigating Mena Airport
>> and Arkansas Development Finance Authority. He slit his wrists,
>> apparently, in the middle of his investigation.
>>
>> 18- Paul Wilcher - Attorney investigating corruption at Mena Airport with
>> Casolaro and the 1980 "October Surprise" was found dead on a toilet June
>> 22, 1993 in his Washington DC apartment. Had delivered a report to Janet
>> Reno 3 weeks before his death.
>>
>> 19-Jon Parnell Walker - Whitewater investigator for Resolution Trust
>> Corp. Jumped to his death from his Arlington , Virginia apartment
>> balcony August 15, 1993. He was investigating the Morgan Guaranty
>> scandal.
>>
>> 20-Barbara Wise - Commerce Department staffer. Worked closely with Ron
>> Brown and John Huang. Cause of death unknown Died November 29, 1996.
>> Her bruised, nude body was found locked in her office at the Department
>> of Commerce.
>>
>> 21-Charles Meissner -Assistant Secretary of Commerce who gave John Huang
>> special security clearance, died shortly thereafter in a small plane
>> crash.
>>
>> 22-Dr. Stanley Heard - Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health Care
>> Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in a small plane
>> crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton's advisory council
>> personally treated Clinton's mother, stepfather and brother.
>>
>> 23-Barry Seal -Drug running pilot out of Mena Arkansas , death was no
>> accident.
>>
>> 24-Johnny Lawhorn Jr. - Mechanic, found a check made out to Bill Clinton
>> in the trunk of a car left at his repair shop. He was found dead after
>> his car had hit a utility pole.
>>
>> 25-Stanley Huggins - Investigated Madison Guaranty. His death was a
>> purported suicide and his report was never released.
>>
>> 26- Hershell Friday - Attorney and Clinton fund raiser died March 1, 1994
>> when his plane exploded.
>>
>> 27-Kevin Ives & Don Henry - Known as "The boys on the track" case.
>> Reports say the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena Arkansas airport
>> drug operation. A controversial case, the initial report of death said,
>> due to falling asleep on railroad tracks. Later reports claim the 2 boys
>> had been slain before being placed on the tracks. Many linked to the case
>> died before their testimony could come before a Grand Jury.
>>
>> THE FOLLOWING PERSONS HAD INFORMATION ON THE IVES/HENRY CASE:
>>
>> 28-Keith Cone y - Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a
>> truck, 7/88.
>>
>> 29-Keith McMaskle - Died stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988
>>
>> 30-Gregory Collins - Died from a gunshot wound January 1989.
>>
>> 31-Jeff Rhodes - He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump
>> in April 1989.
>>
>> 33-James Milan - Found decapitated. However, the Coroner ruled his death
>> was due to "natural causes".
>>
>> 34-Jordan Kettleson - Was found shot to death in the front seat of his
>> pickup truck in June 1990.
>>
>> 35-Richard Winters - A suspect in the Ives / Henry deaths. He was killed
>> in a set-up robbery July 1989.
>>
>> THE FOLLOWING CLINTON BODYGUARDS ARE DEAD:
>> 36 -Major William S. Barkley Jr.
>> 37-Captain Scott J . Reynolds
>> 38-Sgt. Brian Hanley
>> 39-Sgt. Tim Sabel
>> 40-Major General William Robertson
>> 41-Col. William Densberger
>> 42-Col. Robert Kelly
>> 43-Spec. Gary Rhodes
>> 44-Steve Willis
>> 45-Robert Williams
>> 46-Conway LeBleu
>> 47-Todd McKeehan
>>
>> Quite a list. Pass it on. The public should be aware of what has happened to 'friends' of the Clintons.

>>
>>
>> HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT?

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Friday, October 05, 2007

Palestinians divided over future under Hamas - Independent Online Edition > Middle East

Palestinians divided over future under Hamas - Independent Online Edition > Middle East: "Asked a routine question about the 2006 Palestinian elections yesterday, Khaled abu Ahmed slipped off his sandal and used it to beat his head several times to demonstrate his remorse for voting Hamas. 'We wanted change and reform,' he said. 'We thought they would bring prosperity. We thought they were people who knew God. But, believe me, they don't know God.' He was standing outside his white goods shop in al Khawaja street, where the first intifada famously began 20 years ago and where the yellow flags of Fatah have recently begun to flutter obtrusively above many of the houses. Before the elections and the subsequent international boycott, he said, he used to make between £1,200 and £1,400 a month. Now, he said, thanks to closures and two years of only sporadic payments to public employees, he is lucky to make £25. 'People have no money to buy anything,' he said, pointing to the street's many shuttered shops. 'We have been occupied by the Turks, the British, and the Egyptians,' he added, his voice rising rapidly. 'We were occupied by Fatah and now we are occupied by Hamas. And the best of these occupations was by the Jews".

Iranian Military in a Panic--Now is the Time for Some Creative Statecraft by the US

SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN



If the following article has it half-correct (and suspect it does), now is the time for some creative statecraft by the US to disarm the Iranians and prevent a massive war. Statecraft is only successful when the threat of the "stick" is a real threat, and it may be today. The question: does this administration have the skills to accomplish anything in that regard? One caution -- while the Iranian military may be nervous the question is whether the fanatical ruling Iranian leadership is nervous, and are they nervous enough for their political survival to be concerned about possible combat between the less politically reliable regular military, and the Revolutionary Guard. Keep an eye out for that one -- more than once in human history has a purportedly de-fanged military come in, on a wave of popular support, to save a nation from its political leadership... We have heard a lot about the Iranian regime's political crackdown on civil society in recent months (surely a sign of nervousness and weakness) but haven't heard much about what is happening in their military (good reporting, Western press).

Iranian Military in a Panic



Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler

Wednesday, 19 September 2007


One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep i nside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

syria_map

Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6 th.

Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It' s so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff. So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous. Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News , October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack . Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless enemies are fun.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

The New L-Word: Neocon - New York Times

"what's a Neocon? A Liberal mugged by reality." Almost sounds like one of Joel's book titles.

Great op-ed by a guy I don't usually agree with, Roger Cohen, who argues that the attack on neocons has made it impossible for liberals to ever support military intervention for the greater good. If this is how liberals thought in 1941, g-d forbid, what would have become of the world? This might be the greatest long-term damage of the Iraq invasion...

Op-ed Excerpt:

"Neocon has morphed into an all-purpose insult for anyone who still believes that American power is inextricable from global stability and still thinks the muscular anti-totalitarian U.S. interventionism that brought down Slobodan Milosevic has a place, and still argues, like Christopher Hitchens, that ousting Saddam Hussein put the United States “on the right side of history... the term, in these Walt-Mearsheimered days, often denotes more than that. Neocon, for many, has become shorthand for neocon-Zionist conspiracy, whatever that may be, although probably involving some combination of plans to exploit Iraqi oil, bomb Iran and apply U.S. power to Israel’s benefit."

The New L-Word: Neocon - New York Times

Friday, September 28, 2007

Baztab News:Red October -- Russia, Iran and Iraq

Interesting that Baztab -- a reformer Iranian website recently shut down by the Iranian government -- would reprint this article by George Friedman of Stratfor, a well-regarded Western, security-oriented website.
Baztab News

Monday, September 24, 2007

What Israel Really Gained by Bombing Syria

What Israel Really Gained by Bombing Syria

Great article by Dennis Ross on statecraft and deterrence, looking at recent Israeli attack on Syria, its purposes, and the message that the world's lack of reaction sends to Syria and Iran.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Mideast: On Target - Familiar Errors

Mideast: On Target - Familiar Errors: "A corrupt, brutal regime is driven out of part of the area it controls by an anti-Western, ideological, violent opponent.� The population, exploited and brutalized by both, prefers the ideological to the corrupt, and votes accordingly.� In an attempt to regain power, the corrupt regime declares its %u201Cmoderation%u201D and its commitment to Western democratic values, while continuing its path of brutality and exploitation of the population.� The West, correctly fearing the consequences of the victory of the anti-West group, backs the corrupt regime, as the lesser of two evils, despite the fact that the population has long withdrawn support from the corrupt leadership.� The result: nearly 60,000 Americans killed in Southeast Asia between 1964 and 1973.� Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Vietnam.

The decision to support Abu Mazen and the %u201Cmoderate%u201D terrorists of Fatah against the fanatic terrorists of Hamas is as wrong headed and doomed as was the American foray into Vietnam four decades ago.� And for the same reasons: it is doomed to fail.� The Hamas election victory and subsequent ejection of Fatah from Gaza over the past year are indicators of a number of trends, none of which will be reversed by arming Fatah gunmen and releasing their terrorists from Israeli prisons"

See the balance of this very interesting analysis by clicking on the link above.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Testimony: France in the Twenty-First Century - Nicolas Sarkozy - Books - Review - New York Times

Testimony: France in the Twenty-First Century - Nicolas Sarkozy - Books - Review - New York Times

Report: Iran to provide Syria with $1b for new weapons | Jerusalem Post



So was Assad serious about his peace overtures or Israel or was he just doing it to blackmail money and help on Lebanon from the Iranians? Read below.

"Iran to provide Syria with $1b for new weapons | Jerusalem Post
: "Iran will reportedly fund, at a price of $1 billion, new Syrian fighter jets, tanks, missiles against naval craft and will aid in Syria's nuclear and chemical weapons research programs. In return, Syrian President Bashar Assad has reportedly promised Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to cease the pursuit of peace talks with Israel in exchange for Iranian support of Syrian interests in Lebanon.
The sensitive details from the two leaders' meeting in Damascus earlier in the week were related to the Lebanese Arabic daily Asharq Alawsat by an anonymous Iranian source involved with the discreet meeting, and were brought to light on Saturday."

Thursday, July 19, 2007

DEBKAfile, At Leaast 4 Israeli Civilians Injured In Qassam Rocket Attack on Sderot

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security:
How about this for an idea: Israel announces that for every Qassam fired at Israel, Israel cuts off electricity and water to the Gaza Strip for one hour. and for every Israeli injured, they lose it for one day. How soon would it take for the Qassam's to stop, or for Hamas to fall or call for international forces to secure its order region? there will be UN and leftist condemnations, ut how much will the Western world really care? The only reason Israel is providing these essentials to Gaza at this point is becuase Egypt doesn't want to further contaminate its society by contact with Hamasastan. However, the Egyptians do nothing to stem the flow of deadly weapons to the Gaza Strip, so why should Israel make it easy on Egypt or the Palestinians?

"The missile from Gaza exploded Thursday on a residential street causing also heavy damage to property. In a press briefing, a senior Israel officer offered a pessimistic outlook for the population living around the Gaza Strip, which suffers an average of two or three missiles a day. Hamas, he said, has procured its first Katyusha rockets, Sagger anti-tank and anti-air missiles and many tons of explosive materials. The Philadelphi strip bordering on Egyptian Sinai is wide open for the transit of war materiel."

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

How Will the Turkish Military React

Article or Op-Ed

Summary

The Turkish military began to Westernise in the late 18th century and became a strictly secular institution under Ataturk in the early 20th century. The military are Turkey's most Westernised institution and a bastion of secularism. What is more, they consistently rank as the most popular and widely respected institution in Turkey. Since the 1990s, the Turkish military have emerged as a force defending Turkey's secular democracy in the political realm. What explains the military's behaviour? Given the recent rumblings in Turkey over its presidential, and upcoming parliamentary elections -- the Justice and Development Party (AKP), with an Islamist pedigree and currently in government, is at the centre of the controversy -- a review of the Turkish military's commitment to secularism will help reveal how it might react in the near future to a number of important issues.

Help Wanted: Peacemaker - New York Times

Help Wanted: Peacemaker - New York Times

"President Bush baffles me. If your whole legacy was riding on Iraq, what would you do? I’d draft the country’s best negotiators — Henry Kissinger, Jim Baker, George Shultz, George Mitchell, Dennis Ross or Richard Holbrooke — and ask one or all of them to go to Baghdad, under a U.N. mandate, with the following orders:

“I want you to move to the Green Zone, meet with the Iraqi factions and do not come home until you’ve reached one of three conclusions: 1) You have resolved the power- and oil-sharing issues holding up political reconciliation; 2) you have concluded that those obstacles are insurmountable and have sold the Iraqis on a partition plan that could be presented to the U.N. and supervised by an international force; 3) you have concluded that Iraqis are incapable of agreeing on either political reconciliation or a partition plan and told them that, as a result, the U.S. has no choice but to re-deploy its troops to the border and let Iraqis sort this out on their own.”

The last point is crucial. Any lawyer will tell you, if you’re negotiating a contract and the other side thinks you’ll never walk away, you’ve got no leverage. And in Iraq, we’ve never had any leverage. The Iraqis believe that Mr. Bush will never walk away, so they have no incentive to make painful compromises."

Biblical Destruction - WSJ.com

Biblical Destruction - WSJ.com
How the Palestinians are destroying archeologcal evidence of Jewish ties to the temple Mount, and how weak-kneed Israeli authorities are cooperating with this destruction.

The Bush Doctrine Lives - WSJ.com

The Bush Doctrine Lives - WSJ.com

The Counterterrorism Club - WSJ.com

The Counterterrorism Club - WSJ.com

"The presumption seems to be that any dilution of democracy, regardless of circumstance, diminishes the capacity to remain democratic at all. Once the liberal bearings become contaminated, the progressive impulse withers like an atrophied muscle. This argument is no more convincing than those who oppose anti-assault weapon legislation on the fear that the removal of the most dangerous firearms from the streets necessarily leads to the disarmament of the entire nation.

The fact is, it's possible to be liberal, progressive, and still not stupid. It's good to be vigilant when it comes to safeguarding our Constitution, but it's crazy to think that this document, without some supplemental statutory assistance, will enable the government to protect our democracy -- not just as a philosophical principle, but as a state of fact.

It is simply not true that the Constitution is always applied consistently and without exception. Pedophiles, for instance, are clearly on the short end of constitutional justice in America, with their detentions lasting not only indefinitely but often infinitely. Few seem to mind. We prosecuted Nazis in Nuremberg knowing that the full sweep of constitutional protections would have resulted in no convictions -- an unbearable outcome -- and so we created new laws with relaxed standards."

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

War has its Own Momentum in Mideast -- Beware Syria

July 10, 2007

JINSA Report #683
To the South, or to the West?
Syria, under pressure from the UN Tribunal investigating the murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and under additional UN (plus Lebanese, French and American) pressure to halt the flow of weapons and fighters into Lebanon and Iraq, has issued two sets of warnings: to the south and to the west. To Israel and to Lebanon.

A Ba'ath official told The New York Sun, "If Israel doesn't vacate the strategic Golan Heights before September, Syrian guerillas will immediately launch 'resistance operations' ... Damascus is preparing for Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerilla attacks and for a larger war... (The unnamed Ba'ath official) said that in the opening salvo of any conflict, Syria has the capability to fire 'hundreds' of missiles at Tel Aviv. 'Syria passed repeated messages to the U.S. that we demand the return of the Golan either through negotiations or through war. If the Golan is not in our hands by August or September, we will be poised to launch resistance, including raids and attacks.'"

As for Lebanon, the UN appears finally to be taking reports of Syrian infiltration seriously, including consideration of changing the mandate of UNIFIL to guard the border. Arab and Iranian press reports say Syria has told its citizens to leave the country. Hezbollah has been unable to translate last summer's military stalemate against the IDF into political gains in Beirut, but the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), in a special dispatch, reports that Hezbollah has now, "threatened to establish a 'second government' through 'historical steps' in mid July." Steps supported by Syria, as Syria has supported the Fatah al-Islam terror groups in their fight against the Lebanese Army from inside Palestinian refugee camps.

The IDF takes the Syrian threat extremely seriously, suspending changes in Israeli military personnel abroad and improving ground force operations. But the threat from Syria is likely to be primarily missiles, including chemical warheads. To that end, the Israeli government has moved defense funds to the Home Front Command, but acknowledged that the situation of gas masks for the population is unacceptable. Syria is known to have Scud-D surface-to-surface missiles, which were tested in coordination with Iran, and is believed to have Chinese C-802 missiles of the sort used against the IDF/Navy last summer - courtesy of Iran as well.

Syrian propaganda is already blaming Israel for any future war. The New York Sun quotes the Ba'ath official saying Syria "has 'proof' Israel is also readying for a war. 'We hear about special Israeli trainings to take Damascus. We see that Israel is reestablishing bases of the Israeli army in the Golan that are unusual and not needed except for war. We believe the Israeli government has an interest in confronting Syria to rehabilitate its image of losing to Hezbollah,' he said."

War in the Middle East has a way of building its own momentum. Junior Assad, a pawn of Iran, may believe he has no choice but to continue his bluster against two countries closely associated with American interests in the region - Israel and Lebanon. Israel will have to take seriously any Syrian move against Lebanon, and the U.S. will have to take seriously any Syrian move against Lebanon or Israel.

Richard Cohen - They Honor Us With Their Hate - washingtonpost.com

Richard Cohen - They Honor Us With Their Hate - washingtonpost.com

Worthy reminder of why most "traditional" Muslims hate us -- far beyond the reason of our Iraqi War. It is because of our values, of which we should be proud, and which we cannot concede to make them happy, without changing ourselves.

The case for mistrusting Muslims - Los Angeles Times

The case for mistrusting Muslims - Los Angeles Times

Mortar barrages pound Negev - Israel News, Ynetnews

Mortar barrages pound Negev - Israel News, Ynetnews

Why shouldn't Israel turn off electricity to Gaza one hour for every Qassam rocket shot across its border by the Palestinians? How fast would Hamas get control of this problem if it were forced to govern in darkness? Call it collective punishment, but it can't help but be effective. At worse, it would begin the process of decoupling Gaza from Israel (some would say that this would undermine Israeli influence over Gaza. What influence?).

'Time running out for Iran strike' | Jerusalem Post

'Time running out for Iran strike' | Jerusalem Post

What About Muslim Moderates? - WSJ.com

What About Muslim Moderates? - WSJ.com:

More "bone-headedness" by a boneheaded Bush administration. Woolsey is a died-in-the-wool conservative, and proves what we are widely seeing today -- you don't have to have abandoned your conservative or neo-conservative ideology or conceded its wrongness to be enormously dissapointed and upset with the gross incompetence of the Bush administration.

"Islamist terrorism has led the American and British governments in the past month to launch separate public diplomacy programs aimed at engaging Muslims at home and abroad. A quick comparison shows the two initiatives are headed in opposite directions. At least the Brits have finally got it right.

The Bush administration is building bridges to well-funded and self-publicized organizations that claim to speak for all Muslims, even though some of those groups espouse views inimical to American values and interests. After years of pursuing similar strategies -- while seeing home-based terrorists proliferate -- the Blair-Brown government is now more discerning about which Muslims it will partner with. Stating that 'lip service for peace' is no longer sufficient, the British are identifying and elevating those who are willing to take clear stands against terrorism and its supporting ideology."

Kurdistan Showdown - WSJ.com

Kurdistan Showdown - WSJ.com

oyyy....

Libya Destroyed Millennia of Jewish Heritage - WSJ.com

Libya Destroyed Millennia of Jewish Heritage - WSJ.com

The other refugees. If the Palestinians want a rigth of return to anywhere other than the Palestinian teritories, let them go live in the houses in Cairo, Damascus, Tripoli, Sanaa and Tunis of the 800,000 Jews from Arab countries who were made refugees. This figure, by the way was certified by the UN, vs the 650,000 Palestinian refugee figure form pre-'67 Israel also certified by the UN. Instead of expending their time deligitimizing Israel, perhaps leftist Western intellectuals should focus their time on this population swap.

Sunday, July 08, 2007

WSJ: One View of What Went Wrong In Iraq and Our Criminal Mismanagement of This Enterprise

Commentary: The Weekend Interview - WSJ.com

"Mr. Chalabi would appear to be the nearest thing Iraqis currently possess to a genuine walk-and-talk democratic politician, one who will risk life and limb to embody the principle personally. In fact, the U.S.'s main error in Iraq, according to Mr. Chalabi, has been trying to micromanage the development of Iraqi politics. "The U.S. should make a choice," he says, "either to accept full democracy and live with the consequences or undertake full control. They keep trying to 'give local initiatives a boost' instead of letting Iraqi democracy succeed on its own. When you make your own mistakes, you learn. When outsiders make them, unfortunately, they get treated as the enemy."

His recounting of post-war Iraqi history -- which began with the high-handed regency of L. Paul Bremer and then the appointed Iraqi government of Ayad Allawi -- returns again and again to this point.

"The problems began when the U.S. declared an official occupation," he says. "We told the U.S. not to have an occupation, that it would be a disaster. We never intended that. We wanted the Iraqis to run their own affairs, but we were not trusted to do that. Two years ahead of time, we asked [the U.S.] for a 10,000 man multiethnic military police force of Iraqis to be trained ... We were refused."

Thursday, July 05, 2007

DEBKAfile - Syria Winds up Planning for Campaign of Terror on Golan

DEBKAfile - Syria Winds up Planning for Campaign of Terror on Golan

Interesting article. How will Israel respond to the result? With more concessions which ignore Israel's legitimate rights?

Capital - WSJ.com

Capital - WSJ.com: "When Princeton economist Alan Krueger saw reports that seven of eight people arrested in the unsuccessful car bombings in Britain were doctors, he wasn't shocked. He wasn't even surprised.
'Each time we have one of these attacks and the backgrounds of the attackers are revealed, this should put to rest the myth that terrorists are attacking us because they are desperately poor,' he says. 'But this misconception doesn't die.'"

Read the rest of the article. It defintiely presents a point of view. It is a bit too generic, though, and doesn't discuss religious ideology, but it does point out that frustration in ability to politically express oneself is a big part of the problem. However, again, that doesn't answer why doctors in democratic Great Britain should turn to terrorists... other than the corrosive sway of Islam.

Israel Boycott

Israel Boycott

Watch this entertaining little movie. All too often, anti-Zionism, however misguided, quickly morphs into anti-Semitism, as anti-Semitic attacks in Europe and the US have demonstrated during the past 6 years. What have the Palestinians contributed to this world besides suicide bombings and skyjackings? Or the Arabs, other than the oil they sit on?

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

At a Theater Near You ... - New York Times

At a Theater Near You ... - New York Times:

This is a great read from Friedman. In summary, the breast-beating leftists among us must come to accept that it isn't our fault tha tthe Islamists have this cult of death -- it is the fault of the Islamic belief system and their failure to adapt to the modern world. They have to solve this problem before their whole culture is contaminated. Read every word of this article, but the following quote gets at the nub of it:

"Two trends are at work here: humiliation and atomization. Islam's self-identity is that it is the most perfect and complete expression of God's monotheistic message, and the Koran is God's last and most perfect word. To put it another way, young Muslims are raised on the view that Islam is God 3.0. Christianity is God 2.0. Judaism is God 1.0. And Hinduism and all others are God 0.0. One of the factors driving Muslim males, particularly educated ones, into these acts of extreme, expressive violence is that while they were taught that they have the most perfect and complete operating system, every day they are confronted with the reality that people living by God 2.0., God 1.0 and God 0.0 are generally living much more prosperously, powerfully and democratically than those living under Islam. This creates a real dissonance and humiliation. How could this be? Who did this to us? The Crusaders! The Jews! The West! It can never be something that they failed to learn, adapt to or build. This humiliation produces a lashing out."

False hopes of peace - Israel Opinion, Ynetnews

False hopes of peace - Israel Opinion, Ynetnews: "It is no coincidence that a Palestinian state was never established prior to Israel's foundation; it is no coincidence that the Partition Plan was rejected by the Palestinians; it is also no coincidence that for the almost 20 years that had elapsed between the War of Independence and the Six Day War, no such state was established in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

Even recently, when it still seemed to many of us that there was a central government among the Palestinians, they chose not to establish a state of their own, even though such a state would have been recognized by the world at large, including Israel.

�The truth of the matter is that Palestinian nationalism is the byproduct of our Zionism."

JCPA�Peace Process-Why Israel Must Now Move from Concessions-Based Diplomacy to Rights-Based Diplomacy

JCPA�Peace Process-Why Israel Must Now Move from Concessions-Based Diplomacy to Rights-Based Diplomacy: "Government leaders and diplomats would do well to adopt a more aggressive diplomatic stance based on Israel's longstanding international legal and historical rights to a sovereign state in its own homeland with a united Jerusalem as its capital.2 Moreover, in 2007, forty years after the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 242, the State of Israel should also reassert its substantial legal rights to secure boundaries in the West Bank opposite Palestinian demands for a state in Gaza, the entire West Bank, and Jerusalem. Generous Israeli concessions have, if inadvertently, reinforced the charges by some that Israel's legitimacy is inextricably linked to further territorial concessions. Therefore, Israel should now recalibrate the moral force of its rightful claims that today have been all but lost to the Palestinians in the international court of public opinion."

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Lessons from the Cold River - Los Angeles Times

Lessons from the Cold River - Los Angeles Times: "If the Lebanese army can stand up to jihadists, anybody can."

U.S. Ties Iran to Deadly Iraq Attack - New York Times

U.S. Ties Iran to Deadly Iraq Attack - New York Times: "Iranian operatives helped plan a January raid in Karbala in which five American soldiers were killed, an American military spokesman in Iraq said today.
Skip to next paragraph
Multimedia
Video Video: Brig. Gen. Kevin J. Bergner

Brig. Gen. Kevin J. Bergner, the military spokesman, also said that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used operatives from the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah as a “proxy” to train and arm Shiite militants in Iraq."

The most constructive use of this information right now would be a limited surgical air strike at a Revolutionary Guard camp in Iran that can be tied to these activities. If this can be accomplished under multinational auspices, all the better. Iran has run proxy wars against Western interests for decades -- if a message were sent that we were prepared to use military force against them for this, it would put a lot more teeth in a sanctions program regarding their nuclear capability, and might bring us to a happy ending on the nuclear front (right now it is going in the opposite direction). It couldn't get much worse -- the Iranians historically run to negotiation and settlement when confronted with a resolute foe. We must prove to them that we ARE resolute, and willing to bring our forces against their homeland in defense of our own. the practical utility of sending this message now cannot be overstated.

Monday, July 02, 2007

Ending the Farce - New York Times

Ending the Farce - New York Times

A morality play from that least moral place, Washington.

Counterterrorism Blog: The Muslim Brotherhood for Beginners

Counterterrorism Blog: The Muslim Brotherhood for Beginners: "Those who follow counterterrorism commentary over the last several months have noticed a number articles and media treatments dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood. Much of this commentary assumed familiarity with the Brotherhood and the issues raised by its presence in Western countries. Consequently, those unfamiliar with issues might feel lost, like sports fans who enter the stadium at halftime. My goal in this article is to give primer on the Muslim Brotherhood and the recent debates surrounding it. I am going to avoid the temptation to provide my own opinions on the merits of these debates. This decision does not imply that I have no opinions about the group and its worthiness for our embrace. Those opinions, however, will have to await another day."

Sunday, July 01, 2007

YouTube - Israel kill Hamas Mickey Mouse

YouTube - Israel kill Hamas Mickey Mouse
If it weren't so tragic it would be comical.

Poll: 42% of Israelis think peace possible under current leaders - Haaretz - Israel News

Poll: 42% of Israelis think peace possible under current leaders - Haaretz - Israel News


Overall, 41 per cent of Palestinians supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority while 26 percent wanted it replaced it with an international trusteeship. 16 percent of Palestinians said they favored a return to full Israeli occupation. However, 49 percent rejected dismantling the PA.

Some 42 percent of the Palestinians surveyed favored the establishment of a confederation with Jordan.

Jordan's King Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak have recently dismissed the idea of a confederation with Jordan, at least until an independent Palestinian state is established.

Abdullah rejects W. Bank confederacy | Jerusalem Post

Abdullah rejects W. Bank confederacy | Jerusalem Post: "Jordan's King Abdullah II flatly rejected a confederation with the Palestinians on Sunday, calling any such proposal at the current time a 'conspiracy' against his kingdom and the Palestinians, a local newspaper reported."

This isn't as bad as it sounds, though it isn't great. King Abdullah will follow his father's formula, and only go for confederation if the Palestinians ask for it in connection with a peace treaty with Israel. Good luck, with the weakling Abbas in charge. This lack of leadership by the little king will ultimately contribute to destabilizing Jordan.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

HonestReporting Movie: 15 Seconds

This short movie begs the question of how much restraint Israel should now demonstrate with Hamas. Within no more than 12 months (and maybe tomorrow, if the Iranians so deem it), not only will the dusty development town of Sderot be within 15 seconds of disaster, but the heart of Israel as well, as Hamas/Iran begins to take over the West Bank from the corrupt and feckless Fatah. Tony Blair is not going to change that. The only solution is total military reoccupation of the West Bank by the Israelis, or Jordanian confederation/trusteeship over the West Bank (I have long preferred the latter). The Palestinians are a failed state before they even are a state. It would be insanity and suicidal for the Israeli government to pretend otherwise.

HonestReporting Movie: 15 Seconds

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

2007 Failed States Index

See this link for the entire article, from Foreign Policy magazine. When you look at the chart below, please note that a disproportionate number of failing states are either Islamic or strongly influenced by Islamic neighbors, underscoring the threat that Islam presents to the modern world. We can't hide from it and we can't appease to it -- we have to figure out how we can score some military and political victories in this war of civilizations, thereby gaining respect and a glimmer of recognition in the Islamic Street that we are not caving in to the inevitability of history, and help the moderate Islamics turn the tide.
Foreign Policy: The Failed States Index

The columns highlight the 12 political, economic, military, and social indicators of instability. For each indicator, the highest score (greater instability) is in black; the lowest score (less instability) is in white.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Middle East Going to Crap -- Weekend Headlines

JINSA Report #678
Weekend Headlines
The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs prepares a "Daily Alert" for The Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. We share today's headlines straight off the page with a sinking feeling. Some stories require elucidation, and we will try later in the week, but in sum they suggest that Western political establishments are ill equipped to deal with, or even properly understand, the depth and breadth of the threat we face and the relationships among those who would destroy Israel and America.

* Six UN Peacekeepers Killed in Lebanon (NYT) and Al Qaeda suspected in Attack on UNIFIL (Jerusalem Post): (The IDF) warned in December of increasing signs that global Jihad elements were setting up a presence in Lebanon and were planning attacks against UNIFIL. He said global Jihad terror cells posed a direct threat to the multinational force in southern Lebanon.
* Kidnapped BBC Journalist Shown Wearing Explosives Belt (AP/Washington Post) "Captors tell me that very promising negotiations were ruined when the Hamas movement and the British government decided to press for a military solution to this kidnapping," Johnston says in the recording. And Report: Captured IDF Soldier Held in Booby-Trapped Gaza Building (Reuters/Haaretz)
* Iran Takes Step Nearer a Nuclear Bomb (Telegraph-UK): 100 kg of enriched uranium...enriched to the level needed to run civilian nuclear power stations. But if Iran chooses to enrich it to 84% purity, the uranium would reach weapons-grade level. Iran would need 50 kg of weapons-grade uranium to make one atomic weapon of the kind that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.
* U.S., Egypt at Odds on Gaza Border Curbs (LA Times) Cairo insists the threat is greatly exaggerated. "The truth of the matter is that the problem is not nearly as large as the [U.S.] allegations imply, and we're doing quite a bit already."
* Saudi Says No More Mediation between Palestinians (Reuters): Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said, "The kingdom played its part at the right time and so it will not return to the same effort."
* U.S. House Bans Aid to Saudi Arabia (AFP/Peninsula-Qatar): more than 2.5m dollars to the kingdom in FY 2005 and 2006 as part of their partnership in the war on terror...lawmakers said Hamas received more than half of its financing from Saudi Arabia, and last May alone the Saudi government planned to send 300m dollars to the group...also accused the Saudi government of undermining U.S. military efforts in Iraq by making "no official move" to stop about 3,000 Saudis allegedly fighting U.S. troops in the country.
* Israelis, Arabs Meeting to Shore Up Abbas (Haaretz)
* Shin Bet Chief: Hamas Planning Terror Attack (Ynet news)
* Egyptian Militant Leader Calls for Attacks in Support of Hamas (Reuters)
* Olmert Shelves Rice's Shelf Agreement (Haaretz): In Rice's view, merely reaching such an agreement in principle would provide the Palestinians with a "political horizon" and hope. Olmert...fears a situation in which Israel approves the agreement, but Abbas fails to sell it to the Palestinian public and then Israel might be pressured to make further concessions.
* Three Injured in Palestinian Rocket Attack (YNET) and Palestinians Shell Israeli Border Area Near Gaza Crossing (Jerusalem Post): Palestinian terrorists fired 11 mortars towards Israel Sunday afternoon, hitting an area near the Karni crossing.

Hamas releases recording of Schalit | Jerusalem Post



Hamas releases recording of Schalit | Jerusalem Post

Monday, June 18, 2007

Report: Assad linked to Katyusha rocket attack | Jerusalem Post

Report: Assad linked to Katyusha rocket attack | Jerusalem Post

If true (and there is no reason to doubt it), this proves once a gain the bad player that Syria is, and the almost laughable impunity with which it engages, through its myriad of proxies, in violence against its neighbors (principally, Lebanon and Iraq, and also Israel during last summer's war and now with this Katyusha strike yesterday). I thought that Olmert was foolish when he kept reassuring the Syrians last summer that he wouldn't attack them, even though he knew they were aiding Hezbullah in that war. Assad needs some attitude readjustment from the IDF or the US Air Force next time one of our soldiers in Iraq dies from a Syrian supported terrorist -- a slow moving UN trial of his involvement in the Hariri assassination won't do. Arab despots respect the violent use of power, and will not stop attacking US and Israeli interests until they see that they will have to pay a physical price for their proxy wars. It is time that Assad is on the receiving end of this power, for once. It will make him reconsider his actions next time.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

DEBKAfile - Recapture of the Philadelphi Route Is Proposed to stop the Hamas Horror Show from Moving forward

DEBKAfile - Recapture of the Philadelphi Route Is Proposed to stop the Hamas Horror Show from Moving forward: "More and more Israeli commentators are frankly admitting that Israel’s pull-out from Gaza in the summer of 2005 was an open invitation to the forces of radical Islam to set up house in the defenseless territory. Now, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, foreign minister Tzipi Livni and the rest of their Kadima party who presided over that withdrawal are building new castles in the sky to vindicate that error.

Hamas has not triumphed, they say, but offered Israel the chance of a fresh start to separate Gaza, a mere “terrorist entity,” from the West Bank. There, a Hamas-free regime led by Abbas is a fit partner for peace diplomacy."

Thursday, June 14, 2007

The Palestinian Democratically-Elected Government Takes Over Gaza in a Hail of Gunfire

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070614/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians

Hamas overruns Fatah security command

By DIAA HADID, Associated Press Writer 13 minutes ago

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Hamas fighters overran one of the rival

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on Thursday, and witnesses said the victors dragged vanquished gunmen from the building and executed them in the street.




Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Stratfor: Fascinating Analysis on Putin and European Missile Defense

Russia: Using Missile Defense as a Geopolitical Lever

By George Friedman

Russian President Vladmir Putin threw a classic Cold War curveball during his chat with U.S. President George W. Bush at the G-8 summit. Having totally opposed the creation of a U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in Poland and the Czech Republic, Putin suddenly shifted his position, saying he might go along with a BMD system under certain conditions. The system, he said, would be acceptable if the United States used a Russian radar system placed in Azerbaijan and based its interceptor missiles anywhere else, such as on ships or in Turkey or Iraq -- anywhere but in Poland.

By rejecting the proposal, Washington would look hostile and uncompromising. Accepting it would mean basing the missiles near the Iranian border, possibly too close to intercept long-range missiles fired from there. Using Russian radar -- which currently is insufficient for U.S. needs -- would make the entire system dependent on Russian cooperation. And pulling the system from Poland would be a signal to Central Europe that military agreements with the United States are subject to negotiation with the Russians. That, of course, is exactly the signal Putin wants sent.

First, let's consider the BMD system itself. There are two criticisms of it, usually made by the same people. The first is that it won't work, and the second is that it is destabilizing. That the two statements are incompatible does not seem to faze most people. Therefore, it is necessary to begin by explaining the reason the BMD is such a passionate issue.

The foundation of stability during the Cold War was Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. MAD was based on the certainty that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), once launched, could not be blocked. With enough ICBMs, land- and submarine-launched, both the United States and Soviet Union could assure the destruction of the other side in the event of a nuclear exchange. That deterred nuclear risk-taking and stabilized the situation.

The introduction of a missile defense system threatened to change this equation. If one side created such a system, its destruction would no longer be assured, and it might choose to launch a nuclear attack against another side. Even if the effectiveness of the BMD system were uncertain, its very uncertainty created an unknown factor. Neither side could be sure the system would work -- one's own or the other's. In the hall of mirrors that constituted nuclear strategic thinking, the possibility that the other side might calculate probabilities different than you might force you to strike pre-emptively. Since the other side wouldn't know what you were thinking, it might strike pre-emptively. Thus, the existence of a BMD system that might not work was seen as increasing the chance of war.

The Soviets, however, had two very real fears when then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan announced the Strategic Defense Initiative, dubbed Star Wars. The first was that the United States might just create an effective BMD system. The Soviets had been burned too many times by underestimating U.S. technological capabilities to be as dismissive as Western critics. The second problem was that the Soviets could not match the system financially or technologically. If it failed to work, fine. But if the United States pulled it off, the Soviet Union would be wide open to attack without the ability to field its own system.

Therefore, the Soviets went ballistic because they were uncertain about the system's effectiveness. They carried out diplomatic attacks against the system and encouraged its Western critics -- and critics of the Reagan administration in general -- to do all they could to block the system. As it was, Star Wars couldn't be made to work at the time, but if you were to have listened to the Soviets on the subject in the mid-1980s, you would have thought the United States was on the verge of annihilating the Soviets with Star Wars. By then, the Soviets' nerves were pretty well shot. They were generally on the ropes, and knew it.

Since those days, the concept of a BMD system has been seen as a technical impossibility that nevertheless is dangerous and destabilizing. There might have been an element of truth to that, but it is difficult to describe a system designed to block one or two missiles fired by a rogue state as destabilizing. MAD is not in effect, for example, with an Iranian or North Korean missile launch. There is no balance to destabilize. An argument could be made that the system doesn't work. You also could argue that the cheapest and most effective solution to an Iranian missile launch is a pre-emptive strike against the Iranian missile site. But it is hard to argue that the existence of a small defensive system of uncertain effectiveness and geared to look at a third party increases the probability of an American-Russian nuclear war.

But the complexities of nuclear deterrence against Third World countries with minor nuclear ambitions are not what Putin was thinking about when he made his offer to the United States. Rather, Putin was thinking about Poland, its role in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and its relationship to the United States. That's what really is worrying Putin, and the BMD issue is merely a lever to deal with the larger geopolitical issues. In other words, this isn't about missile defense, but about a U.S. military presence -- no matter how small -- in Poland.

Ever since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Russians have been shifting their foreign policy to reassert their sphere of influence in the FSU. In their view, the Andropov experiment of trading geopolitical influence for economic benefits with the West has failed. The benefits failed to solve their problems when they materialized, and the geopolitical concessions have created massive insecurity for the Russian Federation. Therefore, reclaiming Moscow's sphere of influence is the primary issue, starting with Ukraine.

The Russians blamed the Americans for Ukraine, but they also have blamed Poland. Of all of the former European satellites, Poland has been the most openly anti-Russian and the most active in supporting forces in the FSU that also are resisting Russian resurgence. This was shown recently in the Baltic states, particularly Estonia, where Russians have been angered over what is portrayed as increasingly repressive moves toward the local Russian population. The relocation of a monument to the Red Army for liberating Estonia from Germany led to riots by ethnic Russians. Moscow deliberately intensified the crisis, warning the Estonians not to take actions against Russians.

The Russians have a particular problem with the Baltic countries, in that they have been admitted to NATO. The Russians believed they had an understanding with NATO and the United States, dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union, that NATO would not be extended into Central Europe -- and certainly never into the FSU. Obviously, though, many Central European countries have joined NATO. The induction of the Baltic countries, which brought NATO within 60 miles of St. Petersburg, angered the Russians but was grudgingly seen as the price of the Andropov doctrine. However, it was post-Orange Revolution talk of including Ukraine in NATO that drove the Russians to reverse policy.

The Poles, given their long history, are not a trustful or secure people. They view the Russians as merely recovering from a setback, not permanently vanquished. They also have no love or trust for the Germans. Historically trapped on the hard-to-defend northern European plain, equally afraid of both Russians and Germans, the Poles have always looked to an outside power as a protector. Even the experience of French and British guarantees in World War II has not soured them on this strategy, since it is the only one they've got. And that means the Poles now are relying on American guarantees.

But the Poles also badly need a buffer between them and the Russians. They want independent Baltic states in NATO. They want Ukraine in NATO. If there was any way to swing it, they would want Belarus in NATO. They want the Russians kept as far from them as possible. So long as they feel they have U.S. guarantees, they will do everything they can to create blocks to a return of Russia to the frontiers of the FSU.

The Russian view is that the Poles are being encouraged and emboldened by the United States. The missile defense system in Poland is not important in and of itself. It certainly doesn't affect Russia's ability to launch a nuclear strike. But as a symbol of a Polish-U.S. alliance that transcends NATO, it is absolutely vital. The Poles wanted the missiles in their country to symbolize the link, and the Americans wanted them there for the same reason. As long as that link exists, the Poles feel secure, and as long as the Poles feel secure, they will be a thorn in the side of the Russians. The Russian goal of exerting a sphere of influence in the FSU has a broader component. Russia does not expect to regain influence in most of Central Europe -- Serbia possibly excepted. It does want the Central Europeans to be sufficiently wary of the Russians as to exercise caution. Most of the rest of Central Europe tries hard not to get in Russia's way. The Russians want to solidify this posture and extend it to Poland while they redefine the status of the Baltics.

If the Russians can get the Americans to withdraw the missiles from Poland, placing them in Azerbaijan, on ships at sea or in downtown Moscow, the Russians will have achieved their goal. The Russians have a lingering distaste for the BMD. But the real issue is to force a U.S. retreat from Poland. That would shake Polish -- and broader European -- confidence in the U.S. commitment, sober the rest of an already cautious Central Europe and certainly cause the Balts to rethink their posture toward Russia.

If the United States refused to shift the system, this would give the Russians a lever with the Germans. Moscow could then go to the Germans (who still are smarting over a couple of brief cut-offs of natural gas from Russia) and argue that the Americans are triggering another Cold War by their inflexible commitment to basing in Poland when Russia has offered a set of workable alternatives. Whatever German Chancellor Angela Merkel's view of geopolitics, the German public does not want a replay of the Cold War -- and wants Poland to be quiet.

There is also, as in all good Cold War games, a domestic political component. The United States has enjoyed meddling in Russian politics for the past 15 years or so. This gives Putin a chance at payback. At a time when the Bush administration is both politically weak and quite distracted, painting the administration as being inflexible and aggressive, courting another ill-conceived confrontation over a weapon that doesn't work anyway, is a low-risk, high-gain proposition. The New York Times already bit on the bait with an editorial praising Russian flexibility.

The administration's geopolitical problem is obvious. It has too many irons in the fire and a couple of them -- Iraq and Afghanistan -- are white hot. The Russians are deliberately raising the stakes over the Polish system because they see the Bush administration's last two years as a golden opportunity to redefine their sphere of influence. If the United States resists Russia's suggestions, Russia can make inroads in Germany and the rest of Western Europe while causing more domestic political pressure on an administration that already is in the red zone when it comes to political weakness. If Washington compromises, the Russians can use that in Central Europe as evidence of the United States' lack of commitment and of a need for the Central Europeans to rethink their position. It particularly puts the Baltic states in a difficult position. Poland alone (or with the tiny Baltic states) certainly is not a sufficient counterweight to Russia.

Putin's move, therefore, was brilliantly timed and conceived. He took an issue that is controversial in its own right and used it as a geopolitical lever, striking hard at a relationship that is most troubling to Moscow. The Washington-Warsaw relationship represents a serious regional challenge to Russian ambitions. If the Russians can get an American retreat on the anti-missile system in Poland, they can begin the process of unraveling the U.S. position in Central Europe. Since the Western Europeans wouldn't mind in the least, there are possibilities here.

But the possibilities are not the same ones that existed during the Cold War, or even as recently as three years ago. Any region with three dozen states -- read: Europe -- is a dynamic place where governments regularly come and go. By the end of June, the three major European leaders who demonstrated the greatest affinity for Russia during their terms -- German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair -- will all be gone. Their replacements, and the replacements of similar governments throughout Europe, are largely Russo-skeptic. But they also are not instinctual European federalists.

This both destroys and creates opportunities for Moscow. The Kremlin is now facing a Europe that is actually more hostile to it than a similar pan-European alignment of the 1980s. Simultaneously, the unraveling of the European project means that, though the overall region is certainly more suspicious, Russia's ability to peel off individual states from the whole, either with sweet talk or intimidation, could actually prove easier.

And nowhere will it be easier than Serbia. The Russians have made it clear that they do not favor an independent Kosovo. Friendly with Serbia, and very unhappy with the way the Kosovo war was handled by the United States, the Russians could well choose to create a second confrontation over the future of Kosovo, testing both the Americans and Western Europeans at the same time. The Russians now have very little to lose and quite a bit to gain from confrontation.

Mideast: On Target - Lebanon Reflections 1982 – 85

Mideast: On Target - Lebanon Reflections 1982 – 85: The attached piece may be an allegory to Israel's first Lebanon War -- essential and a terrible waste all at once, Israel's Vietnam and Iraq combined -- or to our involvement in Iraq, as it has panned out and promises to most probably end. This is a great and instructive read, and every one of our soldier in Iraq would sympathize with it. Please read this article at the link above.

Its Preface: "Note: This past week most attentions were focused on the 1967 Six Day War, its aftermath and our perspectives 40 years later. Completely forgotten was the First Lebanon War of 25 years ago. The following piece was written in June 1985 when Israel pulled out of Lebanon after three years of conflict. Shortly afterwards we returned to the south Lebanese security zone. "

Monday, June 11, 2007

A Hotter Holy Land-- The International Security Impact of Global Warming

This is a great article in full -- here is a link to a free extract from the Jerusalem Report. Basically, global warming is making the Middle East an even more dangerous place to live, and as former Marine General Zinni says, the increasing lack of water in poorer Middle East countries (think Jordan, for example) that is being brought on by global warming can be expected to be terribly destabilizing in the future.
A Hotter Holy Land

The Horrors of Gaza, by Khaled Abu Toameh

Thanks to Suzanne of HonestReporting for this one. I met the author of the following article, Khaled Abu Toameh, in Jerusalem last year. He is a brave Arab journalist who writes for the Jerusalem Post (among other things), exposing his readership to real conditions in the Palestinian territories, much to his personal danger, rather than simply providing sanitized or propagandistic stuff given to him by Palestinian-controlled stringers (which is the way almost all Western journalists operate). He has written a very interesting article on Gaza below for the National Review (don't expect Time Magazine or the Economist to take an article this honest anytime soon). There are facts here that never see the light of day but must in order for people to understand what is happening. And abu Toameh, with his unparalleled access, for a non-controlled journalist, is the most credible source of news in the region.

A Ghastly Little Place
The fate of the Gaza Strip

KHALED ABU TOAMEH


N
ahed Nimer had just finished afternoon prayers at his home in Gaza City when he heard loud banging at the door. About twelve gunmen stormed their way in, aiming rifles at the terrified man and his family. “Come with us for ten minutes,” the intruders demanded as they dragged the 58-year-old father of six away.

Two hours later, Nimer’s family received a phone call from a friend telling them that their father had been admitted to a hospital. “We rushed to the emergency room, but my father was not there,” recalls the oldest son, Muhammad. “We were told that he had been taken directly to the morgue. He had been brutally tortured before being shot 50 times in various parts of the body.”

Nimer was a victim of the bloody power struggle that has been raging for more than a year in the Gaza Strip between the Islamic movement Hamas and its rival secular faction, Fatah. He was known as one of the political leaders of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His murderers are believed to be members of the Fatah-controlled security forces loyal to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. The parties have been fighting each other ever since Hamas came to power in a free and fair parliamentary election in January 2006. Most of the fighting has taken place in the Gaza Strip, home to an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians, the majority of whom live in harsh conditions in scores of refugee camps.

In the Gaza Strip, unlike the West Bank, Hamas is extremely popular. That’s why U.S.-backed attempts by Abbas and Fatah over the past year to undermine Hamas have so far been unsuccessful. As one of Abbas’s top security advisers admitted recently, “President Abbas is in a difficult situation because Hamas is now in control.”

In the last round of internecine fighting in Gaza, Abbas’s security forces suffered one defeat after another. This is particularly interesting given that Abbas has more than 40,000 policemen and gunmen under his jurisdiction. Hamas, by contrast, is said to have no more than 12,000 soldiers. So how come Abbas hasn’t been able to crush Hamas, especially when the U.S. and some Arab countries have given him large amounts of weapons and millions of dollars?

Abbas, like the vast majority of the Palestinians, is well aware of the fact that Hamas came to power as a result of a free and democratic vote. Undoubtedly, he and his followers would love to see Hamas removed from power. But the last thing they want is to be perceived as part of a U.S. and Israeli plot to get rid of a democratically elected government. Moreover, there is no guarantee that Fatah would win if elections were held tomorrow in the Palestinian territories. That’s because it has yet to draw the appropriate conclusions from its defeat in 2006.


Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, May 2007
Mohammed Salem/Reuters


Fatah lost that vote mainly owing to rampant financial corruption, abuse of power, and mismanagement. Since then, its leaders have done almost nothing to implement reforms and get rid of the icons of corruption in their midst. The Fatah candidates who ran in the 2006 parliamentary election are still around, and many of them even belong to Abbas’s inner circle.
Instead of searching their souls and preparing to run in another free and democratic election, Abbas and his colleagues are obsessed with the dream of removing Hamas from power. They still haven’t come to terms with the fact that they lost, and would be willing to do almost anything to regain what they believe should be theirs forever, if only they could get away with it.

Many Palestinians see the power struggle between Hamas and Fatah as a fight not between good guys and bad guys, but between bad guys and bad guys. The parties are not in dispute over democracy, reforms, and peace; they are killing each other for money and power. The Hamas–Fatah confrontation has resulted in a dramatic breakdown of law and order, especially in the Gaza Strip, where thousands of militiamen belonging to various factions and clans are now roaming the streets freely. Hardly a day passes without a Palestinian’s falling victim to this state of anarchy and lawlessness. In the course of the fighting, which has claimed the lives of more than 160 Palestinians since the beginning of the year, children have been murdered in front of their parents, mothers and fathers have been shot execution-style in front of their children, wounded people have been disconnected from life-support machines in hospitals, bodies have been mutilated and dismembered, ambulances and medical teams have been assaulted, and schools, universities, mosques, churches, and medical centers have been blown up.

Israel’s 2005 unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has done much to aggravate the problem. By abandoning the border between Gaza and Egypt, the Israelis paved the way for the infiltration of al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. Today, there are at least three such groups operating in Gaza. In their attempts to impose a Taliban-style regime, they have bombed Internet cafes, restaurants, and schools that allegedly promote Western values. One of the groups, calling itself the Righteous Swords of Islam, threatened to behead female newscasters on Palestine TV who refuse to cover their faces.


“The Gaza Strip will soon become an international base for global jihad,” said a senior Palestinian security official. “We are no longer in control and we don’t know what to do. We don’t have a strong leader who is capable of making tough decisions.”

Most foreign journalists have stopped traveling to the Gaza Strip for fear of being kidnapped by one of the powerful gangs. In the past two years, more than 30 foreigners have been abducted for ransom. In most cases, the hostages were released in return for money and jobs in the Palestinian Authority.

By staying away from Gaza, the foreign media have left the coverage of events there in the hands of local Palestinian stringers and reporters, most of whom are affiliated with one of the factions. They have the power to decide what the world will see, hear, and read about what happens in the Gaza Strip. Needless to say, most of them are not keen on bringing Gaza’s dirty laundry out into the open.

Following the Israeli “disengagement” from the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians had an opportunity to turn the area into the Middle East’s Hong Kong or Singapore. Instead they have turned it into one of the world’s most dangerous places, where even aid workers and human-rights activists are not safe. The former Jewish settlements of the Gaza Strip, which were supposed to be replaced with industrial zones and modern housing projects, have become training bases for armed gangs.

At a meeting with a group of businessmen last week, President Abbas admitted that anarchy in the Gaza Strip has blocked development, “and this is unfortunate.” This was indeed a rare moment of truth for Abbas — the first time he did not blame his people’s miseries on the “occupation.” In fact, some Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are no longer afraid to say that they miss the “good old days” of Israeli occupation. In the words of a former Palestinian minister, “We were dreaming of Hong Kong and Singapore and instead we got Somalia and the Taliban.”

Mr. Toameh is a Jerusalem-based journalist who specializes in Palestinian affairs.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

What Happened on Northwest Flight 720? » The Aviation Nation

What Happened on Northwest Flight 720? » The Aviation Nation

Terrorists probing our defenses... or two insane passengers? Either way, they were handled by courageous passengers...

Time to confront the Muslim conspiracists | Uk News | News | Telegraph

Time to confront the Muslim conspiracists | Uk News | News | Telegraph: "Something is seriously wrong. A quarter of British Muslims believe the government and security services were involved in the July 7 suicide bombings in London, according to a poll for Channel 4 News.

One quarter cannot be dismissed as a lunatic fringe but constitutes a significant minority.
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Yet this is not the first poll to show that many British Muslims harbour conspiracy fantasies: an NOP poll last August showed that 45 per cent of Muslims believed that the attacks of 9/11 were a conspiracy between the USA and Israel.

Last month, the Pew Research Center published findings consistent with this.

While we don't have figures for comparison, it seems highly unlikely that anything approaching the same proportions of Britons generally entertain such preposterous fantasies. Something has gone seriously wrong within the Muslim community."