Petraeus's Iraq - WSJ.com

Petraeus's Iraq - WSJ.com

See attached article, regarding the tipping point that we may have reached in this war--

"What I got was a soldier's sense of what's happening on the ground and, although the jury is still out on the surge, I came to the conclusion that we may now be reaching the "culminating point" in this war. The culminating point marks the shift in advantage from one side to the other, when the outcome becomes irreversible: The potential loser can inflict casualties, but has lost all chance of victory. The only issue is how much longer the war will last, and what the butcher's bill will be."

Bush's place in history for this war might not end up so badly after all. Yes, it has been horribly executed, and there will be a lot more blood spilt, but lets look at what it achieves for us if we don't cut and run:

-- effective stewardship and military presence over one-third of the oil reserves in the Middle East. It would be nice if we were not so dependent on foreign oil, and this government (as well as all its predecessors) has done woefully little to decrease our dependency on foreign oil (both a grave national security threat and an ecological one), but the fact is that we ARE dependent on foreign oil. I hate to be a colonialist, but at least this is for something necessary to maintain our way of life.

--a permanent military presence on Iran's border. Iran has emerged as a regional superpower and a highly disruptive influence internationally to our interests. We have troops in South Korea for a reason, had a large troop presence in Germany for a reason, and , unfortunately, require a large military presence in the heart of the Middle East, on Iran's border, for a reason -- to protect global oil supplies, protect and provide a tripwire for the Gulf Emirates and the Saudis, and protect the greater Middle East from a broader Israeli-Iranian military conflict. We don't like any of this, but it all gets back to oil. With the Russians acting like Soviets, we need this even more today.

--If Iraq is capable of spawning half a democracy (in an Arabic, tribal cultural form of coexistence) and a country with some level of personal liberty and unfettered press, it will have a long term, tectonic plate-shifting impact on the rest of the Arab world. This has to go slow and be organic, not forced on the Middle East as Bush has tried. However, if it happens, it will lead to great er stability over the long run.

This is the bet the Bush administration's historical legacy is now staking, as we cross this culminating tipping point in Iraq. The Iranians, who have been quiet lately in Iraq, aren't going to let it happen quietly, but it looks like it will happen if we stay the course. And we need that oil, and should be praying for this mission's success....