The Islamization of Morocco and the Battle of Civilizations

The article linked below is disturbing. Morocco, led by its king, has long been a moderate member of the Arab world. Now, apparently, the same disease that has infected the Middle East has begun eating away at its fringes with these developments in Morocco. Like in Saudi Arabia, we are not only talking about the poor and dissaffected becoming part of this anti-Western effort -- the people mentioned in this latest plot in Morocco include government workers, military men, policemen, "society women" and, of course, two imams.

How do we stop this? How do we help our moderate friends in the Muslim world turn this tide (beccause we can't do it ourselves)? Can we win this battle of minds by non-violent action? Can we win it by violent action?

There are several basic aggravating factors today that exascerbate Islamic extremism, pretty much in this order:

1. The lack of economic progress in the Arab and broader Islamic world, particularly in the oil states, where expectations are (justifiably) higher,

2. Anti-Americanism, stoked mostly by our failed presence in Iraq (President Musharraf of Pakistan and the CIA apparently agree on this point), and

3. the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Items 1 and 2 point to a failed perception by the neo-cons that democratic development in a society is a be-all and end-all. I think the administration is starting to see that economic development needs to come first, particularly in the highly tribal, less educated societies of the Middle East. In contrast, when we went straight to democratization in Eastern Europe at the end of the Cold War, on a track parallel or even ahead of economic liberalization, we were abel to be successful, for the most part, because we were fortunate enough to have going for us countries with relatively advanced educational systems that had become one people, with one national system and some uniform rule of law, earlier in their histories (except out Yugoslavia -- which is what Iraq is quickly becoming -- as a nation that was not really one nation to start with). The promise of inclusion in a greater European economic system (the EU) and defense arrangment (NATO) was also a hell of a carrot. In addition, for less developed, tribal nations (as you find in the Mideast) economic development first is important because it yields a legal system that protects property rights better than before, and hence the legal underpinnings which create a more fertile soil for the development of a democratic system.

It is clearly becoming apparent that the Chinese model of economic and legal development first, followed at some point in the future by democratization in bite-sized morsels, may be a better model for much of the Arab and Islamic world. Real economic development that improves the lives of a significant portion of society will ultimately lead to democratic pressures, yet at the same time, people will see progress and will have something to lose if things become less stable, and therefore may be less likely to do "stupid" things as they push for democracy (this exact argument was made to me two years ago by a leading Chinese telecom entrepeneur during a 24 hour stay in Shanghai about his country). There will be corruption and inequity, but as long as most boats rise, a spirit of optimism can be established (developing a spirit of optimism in a society is a key point that Americans take for granted -- hopelessness in the Islamic world is our enemy -- it makes becoming a shahid (martyr) a more atttractive option than staying in their current world).

The Jordanians, for one, are trying to move in the direction of broadbased economic development, the Egyptians are stuck in a rut of paralysis and corruption, and the Saudis, who are responsible to the greatest extent of encouraging the genie of Sunni Islamism to leave its bottle, don't seem to know what to do without destroying their society, and also must focus at the same time on the rising tide of Shiite extremism, in the hands of Iran (it is difficult, when you are in the center of a conflict, to step back and focus your efforts on battling some of the root causes of your problem rather than the effects of them). To some extent, the Lebanese were moving in the right direction of economic development (Lebanon is a country with strong roots in this regard), except that the government never really extended its reaches -- and the development of its economy -- to the Shiite south, and foreign ideological interference from Iran was permitted to flourish and lead to tragedy.

With respect to the Saudis and Iran, it is also useful to note the corrosive influence of oil on any economy in the developing world -- it is hard to pick out a developing economy that has oil and isn't totally screwed up or unstable, from our perspective (Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc...). Power corrupts, but vast sums of money in societies lacking in transparent and operating legal and political systems corrupt even more and provide the monetary fuel for mischief, and at least one motivating factor behind the leaders of Islamic extremism is control of oil wealth (look at UBL's earlier pronouncements where he makes very clear that Western control of Saudi oil was a big burr under his saddle). The sooner the greater economies of the world evolve from being oil-based to a better balance of something else, the better chance we will have of helping these countries develop into more normal nations, not to speak of the environmental benefits.

Anyway, I have to go to work now. In this article I have attempted to begin to frame the issue regarding the most important facilitating factor for Islamism in the Arab world, the lack of economic opportunity and development, not the lack of democracy (though I still believe that economic modernization creates fertile ground for the later development of a democratic system, whci benefits all of us). People in our government are now realizing this, and hopefully, still have some capital left to help Middle Eastern institutions develop flourishing and more rational (i.e., less oil-contorted) economies and legal systems. We will touch on some specifics in this regard in the future, but also will address the other two facilitating factors to the growth of Islamic extremism today -- hatred of the US, mostly over Iraq (today), and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (whcih is also a secondary source of that hatred of the US).

See the article below.

The Islamization of Morocco