Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Reminder that there is an "Axis of Evil" and a "Global War on Terror"

The article below from Debka, relatignto an intercepted North Korean arms shipment to Iran/Syria, probably for the use of Hizbullah, if it is true, provides merely the latest evidence and a reminder that there is an "Axis of Evil" that we confront in the war on terror. It also reminds us that while a "bad guy" country might just seem to be a bad guy country, but not a driect actor in the war on terror, there is a well-developed mutual support network among these countries, driven by both mercantilism and ideology. This network must be disrupted, or the bad guy eliminated, in order to protect ourselves from terrorism. As the President says, "you're either with us or against us" on this one.

Going to the President's 9/11 speech last night, tying Saddam Hussein to the war on terrorism, we cannot know how deep Saddam's involvement was in supporting our adversaries, but we do know definitively that he provided monetary support, and safe haven training camps, to a variety of terrorist organizations. Was Saddam the worst one out there in this regard? No. Did Bush severely bungle the aftermath of the war? Definitely. Would the military and democracy-building economic resources have been better deployed elswhere in the war on terror? Most probably. And Mr. Bush and the Republicans (as well as the numerous Democrats who supported him without question) deserve to be judged on these things. However, it is likewise true that Saddam has a track record of miscalculating and "gambling big" in supporting both "greater Iraqi" and anti-US interests, he was not exactly a citizen in good standing in his lack of cooperation with the UN, particularly during the toothless Clinton years, and it is clearly possible that he could be drawn into greater terrorist involvement against the US. So seeing things from Mr. Bush's post-9/11 mindset of the global war on terror, the Iraqi invasion fit in just fine, in flawed.

In light of this terrorist support network, an important question facing the next US leader is how close we let that thug Chavez in Venezuela get to the Iranians, Syrians and their terrorist proxies. This is coming, as his megalomania and anti-Americanism increases. His diplomatic and material support for these anti-Western forces has already been established. When he opens terror training camps in Venezuela, allows the basing of Al Qaeda "naval units" or allows his embassies to be used by terrorists, what do we do? This is coming, and it will yield the same set of questions over our attack of Iraq -- merely bad guy or terrorist, or something in between?

To close up, in the Cold War we were dealing with an adversary where certain rules were followed in the conflict. This allowed us to wage the war by using a strategy of containment, rather than all-out war, involving proxy wars, propaganda, diplomatic war. We have not reached this luxury in the war against terrorism yet. Maybe we'll reach it if and when the Iranians get their nukes, drawing an analogy to the Soviet-era theory of mutually assured destruction -- or perhaps the more relevant theory of France's nuclear deterrence, "Force de Frappe". I think not, because by that point they KNOW we won't risk worse destruction. Our war against terrorism is much more of an "all-out" war than the Cold War, closer to our war with the Nazis was, yet we are not quite there yet psychologically because the raw military threat is not as great (asymmetrical warfare). Putting aside the politics, the President I think, was trying to get that point across last night.

DEBKAfile

Cyprus detains a ship bound for Syria from North Korea - on Interpol and Israeli tip-off about military cargo

September 12, 2006, 11:24 AM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile’s military sources report the 18 truck-mounted mobile radar systems and three command vehicles, billed as “weather-observation equipment,” were a part of a consignment Iran purchased from North Korea for Hizballah.

The shipment was billed as weather-observation equipment on the freight manifest of the Panamanian-flagged Gregorio 1. Syria was not listed as the consignee. But the Syrian government asked Cyprus to release the seized consignment.

This is the first irrefutable proof that Syria and Iran are in blatant violation of the arms embargo laid down in Security Council resolution 1701.

There is no embargo on arms shipments from North Korea or Cyprus to Syria and it is not clear if the Cypriot authorities intend to impound the cargo in view of the discrepancy between the manifest and the freight.

However, intelligence sources believe the systems aboard the Grigorio 1 are intended to complement the anti-air missiles which have already reached Hizballah via Syria, the main conduit of arms to the Lebanese Shiite terrorists.

The Gregorio 1 which set out from North Korea reached Port Said in Egypt and was on its way to the Syrian port of Latakia when it put into Cyprus to refuel.

No comments: