Watch Out for Palestinian Civil War

During the past two weeks there have been a number of developments that portend poorly for the future of stability in the Palestinian territories:

--The breakdown of unity government talks between Abbas and Hamas;

--Fighting between Hamas and Fatah loyalists in the streets of Gaza, leaving tens killed and scores injured;

-- the Fatah attack several days ago on the motorcade of the Hamas foreign minister;

--The failure of Egyptian-led mediation talks between the sides;

--Revelations of the massive inflow into Gaza from Egypt, through a leaky border and scores of tunnels (some of which have been recently discovered by Israelis re-occupying the Philadelphi Strip) of not only weapons for use against Israel, like Katyushas, anti-aircraft and anti-tank rockets, but also of Hizbullah, Al-Qaeda and other foreign combatants and "experts", along with personal weaponry and bombmaking equipment. (By the way, the Egyptians have either been criminally negligent or worse in permitting the re-militarization of Gaza, and I'd like to know why this has happened, purposefully or through a loss of control by the Egyptian regime -- we give them over $2 Billion a year to be a loyal ally, what gives?).

--The quiet dispatch by the US and Jordan of money and arms to Abbas and his Fatah arm.

--Debka reports today that the Palestinian parties ave been summoned to Saudi Arabia for a last ditch attempt at mediation.

The approaches of the two sides are irreconcileable, as long as the Western boycott of Palestinian aid continues and the noose is drawn tighter around the necks of Hamas, which is increasingly being blamed for the privations of a citizenry long accustomed and expectant of living off of welfare payments paid by others. Something has to give for Hamas to retain power, especially as there continue to be veiled threats of Abbas calling for new elections or suspending Parliament.

What to expect?

If Saudi Arabia cannot or will not revert to form and try to bribe the parties to a truce, expect Hamas and its allies in Gaza, where it is much stronger militarily and on a relative basis to Fatah than on the West Bank, to accelerate armed conflict with Fatah, which could well result in a full civil war in Gaza, which Fatah is positioned to lose. If this conflict in Gaza goes terminal and badly for Fatah (which it would), expect Fatah, to save face, to bring this civil war to the West Bank, cleansing it of Hamas power structures, where Fatah is stronger and Israeli complicity of one sort or another can be expected. Also expect Hamas to accelerate its efforts to kidnap more soldiers from Israel and attack Israel with more rockets than the several-a-day it now endures (and no one talks about). Just as the Hizbullah attack of Israel was to a great extent meant to buttress its internal political position in Lebanon, expect Hamas to try to do the same in a growing Palestinian civil war. Israel, this time, will be expected to show more restraint in order to help Fatah and not seem like too much of a Fatah ally against Hamas.

The end game? Either this growing civl war is stopped in time, or we end up with Gaza smoldering, and a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Fatah-controlled West Bank. Israel will have the dagger of a Hamasastan pointed to its south, and its hand may become eventally freer to deal with this threat, and perhaps Jordanian involvement in "stabilizing" the West Bank could help in long term co-existence efforts between the Palestinians and Israel. I may even see my desire of Jordan's assumption of West Bank security control through the importation of Jordanian police trainers and advisers, in consultation with Israel, leading to Palestinian confederation with Jordan. Of course, anyting that helps with "solving" the Palestinian issue for world and Arab consumption will help our foreign policy in the Mideast, especially as Gaza and its people are increasingly seen as the bad brothers of West Bank Palestinians. Wishful thinking perhaps, but it could happen....

Out of risk comes opportunity --lets keep our fingers crossed.