Monday, October 09, 2006

Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war/Takeaways - Haaretz of Israel Quoting Jane's Intelligence Journal

Hopefully our President does not repeat his mistake from several years ago and believe that, when he sees into Mr. Putin's soul, he sees anything other than utter darkness.

It seems pretty clear from the articles below that Russia is back at it's old games again, trying to assert its power in the Middle East by standing in the way of each and every constructive, peace-seeking action attempted by the Western world (e.g., the UN's deployment in Lebanon). This makes it all the more clear that we should not expect Soviet -- whoops, I mean Russian -- assistance in dealing with Iran. Even more disturbing is that, whereas during the Cold War, Soviet actions were constrained by both a clear memory of the horrors of WW II and certain rules of the game (including a strong resistance to doing anything that would allow satellites or "non-aligned" states to take control of non-conventional weapons), today those rules do not seem to apply, which makes the world that much more dangerous...

Summary of Articles on Recent Russian Involvement in Lebanon and Syria: I'm too cheap to buy a subscription to the very informative Jane's intelligence and defense periodical, but Ze'ev Schiff of Israel's Haaretz published the article linked below highlighting Jane's reporting that during the Summer War in Lebanon, "Hezbollah received direct intelligence support from Syria, using data collected by listening posts jointly manned by Russian and Syrian crews. Hezbollah was also fed intelligence from new listening posts built on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, which are operated jointly with Iran. "

Debka separately reports today ("Debka Russian Lebanon Intel Buildup") that
two Russian Chechen GRU platoons, Vostok and Zapad, are setting up their headquarters and surveillance posts in the Lebanese port of Sidon and giving Syrian intelligence a window on their input. According to Debka, "the carve-up of South Lebanon since Israeli troops pulled out is unfolding as follows: The UN force mandated by UN Security Council resolution 1701 is centered in the Tyre region, whereas Hizballah, Syria’s supporters and the Russian intelligence platoons have taken control of Sidon further up the Mediterranean coast. The three elements are ideally positioned for Hizballah to control the south Lebanese coastal region and for the Russians and Syrians to keep track of the military movements of the Israeli army, UNIFIL and the European naval units off the Lebanese shore."

Bottom Line Observations and Significance of these Developments: The Russian intelligence presence in Lebanon and close cooperation with the Syrians and Hezbullah:

--Puts UN troops at greater risk from terrorists;

--Further undermines Israel's deterrent capability, in that another dangerous hurdle was just placed in the path of Israel's ability to strike back at Syrian resupply of Hezbollah (of which the Israelis have nothing so far) -- possible casualties to Russian interests in Lebanon, as well as early warning of any Israeli attempt at such actions;

--Israel's military capability to do anything to Iran is also undermined, based on the logical assumption that if Israel commenced military activities targetting Iran -- or its interests in Syria -- the Russians could possibly see it sooner from their intelligence posts in Lebaonon and Syria and relay the information to the Iranians. Similarly, any use of the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, against Iran or elsewhere, also just took an intelligence hit.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. It feels like the 70's again, triangulating between the Chinese and Russians, though this time there is a third and more dangerous enemy, Islamic extremism...


Hezbollah received intel from Russian-Syrian listening post during war - Haaretz - Israel News

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