Sunday, January 21, 2007

Israel Building Nuclear Bunker for Top Officials; Israeli Fighter Squadrons Train for Long Range Mission -- Democrats, Where are Your Answers?

Thanks to my Mother for this article link: For Israelis, a new worry: Iran's nuclear intentions - baltimoresun.com

Democrats, what now? The Iranians have telegraphed to the world on an almost daily basis that they wish to see Israel eradicated from the face of the Earth, in between their holding Holocaust denial conferences. Israel has made clear to the world that they hear the Iranians, loud and clear, and are preparing to "go it alone" if the World does nothing, as it did in the face of Hitler's Holocaust (and again, this is exactly the context through which the overwhelming majority of Israelis see this situation).

Democrats, what are we going to do about it?

--Sure we can follow Baker-Hamilton and "talk"directly and bilaterally with the Iranians, as long as this doesn't mean a tolling of the clock for action or weakening of multilateral resolve, if such talks yield little or nothing (which is the most probable outcome of such talks, on both scores).

--We can take the view that Israel is the case of all that is wrong in the Middle East, and force Israel to the table for a regional peace conference and make Israel talk with Syria and the Palestinians -- the most probable results of which will be little, since the Palestinian majority voted in power a rejectionist government that wants and expects Israel to be removed from the map within 15 years (2020, to be exact) and the Syrians rely on rejectionist Iran as its main patron (the Saudis are trying to change this, but very late in the game). If the world (read the Europeans as the key swing vote) gang up too hard on Israel at such a conference (and how could the Eurabians help themselves from such behavior, which comes so naturally to them?), this will only strengthen Israeli resolve to go it alone against the Iranians, as such "talks" weaken Western resolve to take multilateral action against Iran.

--We could take Israel behind the woodshed and threaten them with the most severe consequences if they act unilaterally against the Iranians. But does American public opinion support such a move? Is it moral and consistent with everything that we say our nation stands for? Will it matter to the Israelis and prevent them from attacking Iran, if they believe that this is the only thing they can do to save their country (which is the context in which they are now looking at this)? Ironically, if we acted like the Eurabians and threw Israel over the side ("but only if necessary, Jacques"), it would further undercut our credibility in the world ("if the US would do that to their longtime friend the Israelis, who almost sit like the 51st state in the Middle East, can they be trusted at all?"). Israelis knew what the repurcussions could have been when they attacked Saddam's Osirek reactor in '79 -- but they did it anyway because they felt they had no choice, took some heat and skated through, partly because there were other Arab governments which were not terribly unhappy with the result (as would be the case here -- though the Arab Street might think otherwise).

--Lastly, we could continue to drive forward with sanctions, clandestinely try to put pressure on Iranian leaders from the inside (it is safe to say that a lot of Iranians are not happy with their leaders), perhaps talk with the Iranians simultaneously, watch Iranians scoff at our weak multilateral efforts and continue to aid in the killing of our soldiers in Iraq, as we prepare to take action ourselves if necessary, because if we do it, it won't need to entail a nuclear attack, but rather an extensive conventional one that will probably need to be repeated -- if the Israelis are compelled to act, it almost surely will HAVE TO BE a nuclear attack, with the ability to have only one bite at the apple, and who knows where such a nuclear attack will bring the world?

Democrats, we can all agree the options stink. The more you advocate for an unproductive outcome or merely naysay any preparation for harsh US action, the closer you bring Israel to unilateral action before Bush leaves office, because they know the clock is ticking against them and he is a true friend of Israel. Come up with something that is likely to work on the Iranian issue, or shut the hell up on this subject in your presidential electioneering, and instead focus on related (but creampuff) national security issues like environmentalism and energy security.

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