The Palestinian Conundrum

See the attached excellently illustrative op-ed on the state of affairs in the Palestinian territories -- basically, unsafe, uncivilized and incapable of self-government -- a failed state in the making (Our World: Welcome to Palestine | Jerusalem Post). All agree to varying extents that the Middle East would be a somewhat better place if Palestinian's gain security, autonomy and "dignity" (the latter being a word that has a pathology all its own in the Islamic world, and is used as an excuse for countless horrors at the smallest slight). Unfortunately, the Palestinians seem thoroughly incapable of managing their own affairs while also providing Israel with the security that IT needs in order to seal the bargain with the Palestinians.

Lets replay my core thesis again: The Palestinians are in the early days of a fratricidal civil war. The Jordanian king has recently remarked that in a year or two an independent Palestine will not be possible. The "moderate" Sunni nations, foremost among them Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are petrified about the rising regional influence of Shiite Iran, and the trouble that it could spell in destabilizing their"Arab Streets" further (and thereby their autocratic rule). Israel's increasing vulnerability (punctuated by its Lebanese stalemate last Summer) and our failures to date in Iraq aren't helping Sunni confidence in any chance of a receding Iranian tide -- these Sunni moderates probably can empathize just about now with how the Thai royal family felt in 1975. One thing these Sunni nations can do to help stem the tide of further radicalization and Iranian influence in the Middle East is to help provide a solution to the Palestinian situation, and thereby reassert a leadership position in the Arab Street an on Al Jazeera.

How to solve the Palestinian conundrum? They can't have a state until they can believably engage in self-rule and provide Israel with security (I note here for the uninformed that since Israel withdrew unilaterally from Gaza approximately 18 months ago, there has been barely a handful of days during which Qassam rockets have not landed on Israeli territory from Gaza -- what would we do if missile landed daily from Canada into Buffalo and its environs?).

By Jordan's pushing forward the long-discarded Jordanian-Palestinian confederation plan, whereby Jordan would take over governing and security responsibility for the Palestinian territories, the Sunnis (the Egyptians and Saudis would have to support this move in a major way) would be doing the entire world, and themselves ultimately, a big favor. The differences the Jordanians would have with the Israelis over such a plan would not be anywhere near as major or difficult as it would be between the Israelis and Palestinians. From a security viewpoint, the Israelis trust the Jordanians, and the Israelis and Jordanians have effected land swaps before, which would be critical to any plan. The Jordanians already religiously control (and thereby have religious "sovereignty" over) the Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem. The toughest issue would involve the Sunni nations supporting the extinguishment of the Palestinian "right of return" to Israel proper -- in connection with this grand bargain involving land swaps, the Sunni nations would have to acknowledge and sell to the Arab public the massive population swap of Jews from Arab countries for Palestinians refugees from Israel that took place following the establishment of the State of Israel (according to the UN, approximately 800-900,000 Jews left the Arab countries, abandoning enormous amounts of wealth, and 600,000 Palestinians, mostly farmers and laborers, left Israel). Over time, this arrangement could evolve into a trusteeship for the Palestinians and ultimately independence. While this plan subjects the Jordanians to the Palestinian contagion, the King knows that unstable Palestinian territories will ultimately destroy his own rule, as over two- thirds of his own subjects are increasingly radicalizing Palestinians.

This move would take uncharacteristic guts and foresight by the Sunnis, especially the Jordanians. However, as our involvement in Iraq winds down (and at best, will leave a post-split Yugoslavia that is an incubator for terrorism in its wake), and the Iranian nuclear issue moves from a simmer to a boil, I really don't believe the moderate Sunnis have many choices -- the days of the Saudis paying off their adversaries for peace are just about over...