IMPORTANT COMMENTARY- Hamas Traps Israel between Two Options: War or War of Attrition

Interesting analysis -- it looks like the Summer 2007 war may begin early in Gaza, or Israel will have to yield sovereignty over its southern cities to Kassam rocket fire. (DEBKAfile - Hamas Traps Israel between Two Options: War or War of Attrition) Now the question is whathappens up north" if Israel takes a more active role in Gaza, which it will ultimately be forced to do? What is the status of talks with Syria -- perhaps secretly being undertaken so as not to incur Condaleeza's ire? (most Israelis would prefer to hold such talks, though held back form doing so by the American prohibition on the same). The Summer 2006 war was successful at pushing Hezbullah back off the border with Israel, making it harder for them to provoke conflict with Israel, at least without mixing in the European "peacekeepers".

The Jordanians, embarrassed last week by leaks of its attempt to broker a watered-down version of a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation plan in order to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, regrettably stepped to the sidelines in this quest -- perhaps the only thing that could have empowered the weakling Abbas to defeat Hamas (the thinking is that if, with Arab world support and Abbas' agreement, Jordan floated such a plan and Hamas retaliated, Israel, the Jordanians, the Egyptians and Fatah would have had a much freer hand, both internationally and among the Palestinians themselves, to ruthlessly defeat Hamas once and for all).

The makings of a shit sandwich are coming together if there is not some strong leadership and risk taking on the Arab -- and Western-Israeli sides soon. This is the time for Saudi King Abdullah, perhaps the only Arab "moderate" with any backbone at this point, to break the logjam and get on a plane to Jeusalem to speak to the Knesset. the other western leaders -- Olmert, Mubarek, the King of Jordan, Bush, the newly elected Sarkozy, the changing over British government, etc... are either too damaged or new to do anything here.