InvestorsInsight : The Recession of 2007

This is a fairly well-written article, worth reading. InvestorsInsight : The Recession of 2007 The market is acting as if it doesn't want to see that the housing market continues to get worse (especially watch out for the possible market impact of that growing legion of negative equity subprime mortgages -- our default rate in tax lien loans and small ticket equipment leasing at Full Circle has been creeping up), the manufacturing and retail trends are dicey and the inverted yield curve gets steeper. Add to that the weak dollar (thank G-d there is no better reserve currency around) and the macro shit storm called the Middle East, and it could start feeling pretty chilly out there in the second quarter of 2007.

Since you can't abandon the market entirely, and I have little confidence in most long/short managers to deliver anything but enhanced beta (not much alpha), I have begun focussing on export-driven stocks that derive more benefit from growth in Asia, water infrastructure plays (my Suez ADS have done well over the past 9 months but now I'm looking for more in that area, where I think the global macro trend is our friend) and am going to focus this weekend on what else I believe in, other than cash of course.