Foreign Policy Changes to Expect As a Result of The Election

More to come on this subject in coming days, but here is an outline:

--The beginning of the end in Iraq -- aggressive repositioning of US forces away from areas of active interdiction, towards border control and more training of Iraqis to prepare for our departure. Basically, this will force the Iraqis to work it out at the poliitcial level and get their own military capability up to speed faster, or suffer the consequences. expect preparation for withdrawal of smaller permanent force (20-40,000 soldiers) to Kurdish region. Mission not accomplished.

--Direct engagement of Iranians on Iraqi security situation and nukes. Working from a position of weakness with the Iranians, this should not be pretty, but ther aren't too many choices if we don't want Iraq to totally degenrerate into a cesspool. As I have urged before, Sunni Arab countries can strengthen our hand in this endeavor with the Iranians by getting more active in Iraq, officially (at the Arab League level) or unofficially (more active military and political support ofthe Sunni insurgents). Do they really want Iran controlling Iraq?

--Expect the acceleration of the Balkanization of Iraq, as population exchanges in Iraq take hold, creating moslty omogenious ethinc regions and significnalty reducing fighting over the next 12 months, but with much humanitarian distress in the short term. Silver lining for the Israelis -- the begrudgingly acknowledged success of this population exchange could point a light to the ultimate solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, but I unfortunately don't expect Western leaders to stop shining their double standard laser pointer on the Israelis.

--Israel's got real problems. In a James Baker realpolitik move, expect significant pressure on Israel to engage in multilateral talks with Abbas of the Palestinians, ignoring the fact that Hamas is in the government. If Israel is lucky, Abbas outlaws Hamas or calls for new elections, but don't expect such vigorous action out of him -- he knows that Israel will be forced to make concesions, Hamas or not. this will be part of an orchestrated, largely unsuccessful effort to lower the anti-US temperature in the Arab world, get us out of Iraq, and give the Iranians enough of a victory to permit that. Wishful thinking tha thtis will strengthen the hand sof Iranian "moderates" and allow some victory on the Iranian nuclear front by allowing the Iranian moderates to push forward a more ambigous nuclear policy, with more inspections, focussed for now on only peaceful nuclear development. Expect the Hamas rocketing of southern Israel to continue, and much less patience of ineffective Israeli military responses.

--Watch out for surprises in Asia -- especially if Democrat trade policies threaten Chinese trade (good news, I don't think they will, but there will be much jawboning).

--Expect a ton of power to go to multilateral initiatives, and more ominously, the UN. If Bush were smart (?!?) he'd start dusting off the idea of creating a global confederation of democracies as a new multilateral organization with which we can coordinate actions, rather than getting sucked into the vile morass of the authoritarian-controlled UN.

--If Bush is smart (?!?) he will try to sieze his own highground vis a vis the Democrats, something NOT high on their political agenda, so he reduces the appearance that he is in massive retreat across the board. He should launch a new global warming and energy security initiative. In order to get ahead of the Democrats on taxes, this initiative should include a new energy tax to pay for research and alternate energy subsidies.

Just some thoughts, typos included....